Saturday, June 1, 2013

Navarre: opinion polls show the collapse of the twin party regime

The latest electoral opinion polls in Navarre show that the ruling twin-party regime would collapse if elections would be held now. Right now, a highly unpopular minority government by the Navarrese People's Union (UPN, a regional brand of the all-Spain reactionary People's Party, PP), shattered by brutal corruption scandals which have plundered the coffers of the Old Kingdom, is only held in place by the tactical neutrality of their former associates of the Socialist Party (PSOE, the other traditionally major all-Spain party) but the clamor for early elections is widespread, with levels of discontent that are unprecedented and even higher than elsewhere in the Kingdom of Spain.

Estimated electoral results in Navarre if elections would take place now (May 2013)

This would allow for almost only one realistic majority: a left-leaning and mostly pro-Basque coalition of GeroaBai, Bildu and United Left.

A theoretical alternative might be UPN-PP-GeroaBai, which should not be disdained considering the growing influence of the right-wing bourgeois "pro-Basque" EAJ-PNV party in this coalition (all the rest are independents, as all other NaBai parties have joined Bildu already), which flirts a lot with the Spanish Nationalist right-wing, but considering the peculiarities of Navarrese politics, I would consider this option unlikely at least initially, especially because of the extreme discontent of Navarrese society towards UPN these days.

The tendency suggests that the more the elections are delayed (to as late as 2015), the greater the political shift.

Election tendency in elected Chartered Deputies (total: 50)
2007 and 2011 are actual election results, 2013 is projection from opinion poll
In 2007 Bildu (nor any comparable force) was not allowed to run
NaBai and GeBai are shown as the same even if they are not identical formations at all

If the tendency continues as between 2011-13 and the elections take place in 2015 (as most suspect), then a purely mathematical extrapolation (in seats) could be:
  • Bildu: 19 seats
  • GeBai: 17 seats
  • United Left: 7 seats
  • UPN: 7 seats
  • PSOE: 3 seats
  • PP: 2 seats
  • UPyD: 2 seats
Naturally that I find hard to imagine such a sweet scenario of radical change in the Old Kingdom but that's what raw maths suggest. If this projection would materialize, a purely left-wing government of Bildu with United Left would be natural (26 projected seats, absolute majority) and the bourgeois camp would find impossible to maneuver within the Navarrese Parliament, what would be a most welcome necessary change.

But, most optimist expectations aside, the situation looks grim in Navarre for the pro-Spanish bourgeois camp. It's all their merit, or rather their fault, it must be said.

Source: El Mundo en Cifras[es].



Nafarroa Bai (Yes to Navarre, NaBai) was formed as a coalition of Aralar (a breakaway faction of the Basque Nationalist Left), Basque Solidarity (EA, social-democratic Basque Nationalists), independents and the right-wing Basque Nationalist (or Traditionalist) Party (EAJ-PNV), almost extinct back then in Navarre. 

However when Bildu coalesced in 2010-11 from the illegal Basque Nationalist Left (ex-Batasuna, now Sortu), EA and a breakaway faction of United Left (Alternatiba), as well as a wide independent grassroots movement, NaBai became limited to Aralar, EAJ-PNV and independents like the current charismatic leader Uxue Barkos. Soon Aralar realized that they had almost no room in most of the Basque Country and were being overshadowed by Bildu and decided to join them.

This left NaBai almost devoid of any partisan support, with the notable exception of the Christian-bourgeois EAJ-PNV, which saw in it their opportunity for a comeback to the Navarrese political scene after their shameful betrayal in the 1980s (which triggered the schism that created EA). The result is Geroa Bai (Yes to the Future, GeBai) which had an important success in the Spanish general elections of late 2011, getting one deputy (Uxue Barkos).

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