If someone still doubts the Basque Country is occupied...

... that one only has to look at what happened yesterday in Altsasu (Navarre).

Every year the Sovereign People of Altsasu attempts to celebrate a fiesta-protest known as "Ospa Eguna" (Go Away Day), demanding the evacuation of the Spanish Military Police (Guardia Civil) from the town and valley, and more in general from the whole Basque Country, because they are disruptive, abusive and unwanted occupation forces.

And every year the occupation forces try to demonstrate they are the ones in command and not the People. That's what I call a dictatorship.

This year it was painfully obvious:

The "logic" for the military aggression was that "we don't like it". Not even using and abusing the law and the judicial system, just absolute arbitrariness from those who know that they won't be ever challenged in their own legal and political system. 

Yes, Franco won the war and his ghost is still very much alive.

Finally a normal, peaceful San Fermin for all!

Pamplona-Iruñea was the first town that saw the Basque flag, the ikurriña, to be raised officially in 1977 after 40 years of suppression by the fascist regime. Almost other 40 years had to pass until that happened again... this morning. 

In the last years I have been reporting on how the neo-fascist UPN regime was trying to totally suppress the Basque flag from being present in the "txupin" (inaugural rocket launching) of the San Fermin fiestas, using police and more police and even more police, never mind photo-editing, to persecute those who dared to bring the Basque flag to this festive act at the historical Basque capital.

In the mid-run they have failed. The citizens of Pamplona have elected a Basque Nationalist and Leftist City Hall and for once Pamplonese and visitors alike could begin the fiesta in peace and good mood. 

Greece was also present... albeit more informally

The ikurriña was also present in varied forms among the multitude present at the square, this time without any incident. You can see those images at Naiz Info's photo-gallery.

Gora Iruñea! Gora Sanferminak! Happy fiestas!

The elections in the Southern Basque Country

Let's discuss a bit the Southern Basque political situation after the municipal and regional (provincial) elections.

First of all, I worked out a map of most voted lists for each municipality (but based on regional election vote). Notice that in many cases, particularly in Navarre, being first does not mean to be the winner nor being able to govern, that will be decided by the local councils, often very fragmented: it depends on possible pacts that I will discuss below.

Most voted list in the regional elections by municipality (click to expand)

You can compare with the European Parliament elections 2014, for which I made a similar map.

1. The Real Left:

The Real Left (EH Bildu, Podemos, United Left) has performed rather well in all the territories, however it is fragmented and the gains are in most cases not enough to displace the regime's parties. In some cases, Gipuzkoa notably, the result is rather bitter than sweet, as EH Bildu has lost its primacy and its ability to govern the region and some important towns, including the capital Donostia (San Sebastian). In Biscay the Real Left is relatively stagnated and gets mediocre results, what is always surprising in the most urbanized and industrial area of the Basque Country. In Navarre and Araba the results are undoubtedly good.

The best result is no doubt that of Navarre, where the regime change demand has become massive. Data from municipal elections:

• EH Bildu gained 17,000 votes since 2011 (total 54,000), jumping from 12% to 16% of popular support.
• The "others" category, which includes the many "citizen lists" akin to Podemos has grown in 41,000 votes, jumping from 5% to 18%. 
• Izquierda-Ezkerra (United Left) remains stuck around 15,000 votes (5%).

Together we are talking of around 35% of the popular vote (more than 100,000 supporters). That's no small feat. These three political tendencies of the Real Left make up the core of the change coalition in Navarre, to which it must be added the center party Geroa Bai, probably not too comfortable of having so many and so strong "radical" partners and no other realistic options for coalitions. 

Another good result is in Araba:

• EH Bildu grows 3,000 votes (total 35,000) sliding from 21% to 22% of the popular vote.
• The "others" category grows in 15,000 votes, jumping from 7% to 16%. Again this is essentially attributed to Podemos-inspired popular lists. In fact, only in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Hemen Gaude gathered more than 10,000 votes. 
• United Left (under the ad-hoc brand Irabazi) gained a few hundred votes (total 6000) and half percentual point (total 4%).

Overall it means some 55,000 voters and maybe 42% of the vote. Not enough to rule anywhere important because of fragmentation that harms representation, as well as the indecision about possible pacts of Podemos in the Western lands, the strong vote for PP in the capital Gasteiz and the consolidated lead of the PNV in the rural areas. 

In Biscay, holding one third of the overall Basque population, the results are more mixed:

• EH Bildu loses 12,000 votes (total 113,000), sliding from 21% to 20%.
• The "others" category doubles from 31,000 to 61,000 voters, from 5% to 10%.
• United Left (through its brand Irabazi, including some other tiny parties) doubles its performance, otaining 18,000 votes (5%).

Overall the Real Left gets some 150,000 votes and 30% of the vote. Not a great performance in the most urban Basque region, I must say. It's clear that, for some unexplained reason, many working class voters are choosing other options, largely the righ-wing PNV. 

In Gipuzkoa, the second largest region and the one with the strongest Basque feeling, the results are considered quite bad, notably because of the loss for EH Bildu of the governing capacity in the province and capital, as well as many other towns. Again the explanation is difficult because Gipuzkoa has been performing very well at the economic level but conflicts like the one triggered by the imposition of certain unpopular recycling methods may have weighted too much, even beyond common sense. 

• EH Bildu lost 13,000 votes (total 107,000), falling from five percentual points (from 35% to 30%).
• The "others" category has only grown very little (some 2,000 votes) and not even noticeable at percentage (5%), indicating a lack of presence of Podemos or similar forces in this region.
• United Left or Irabazi has also duplicated its votes (total 18,000, 6%) but remains a small force.

Overall the Real Left gathered some 125,000 votes (more than 35%). It is still a strong performance but clearly low and a setback considering the recent history.

2. The Unionist Center-Left (PSOE):

The party historically named Worker Socialist is not anymore such thing in practice, if it ever was, but has slided first out of Marxism (if Lafargue could see that!) and then out of social-democracy altogether, much like most other "social-democrat" or "labor" parties of Europe, into US style liberalism. In the Basque Country it tends to ally with regionalist right-wing forces on "reason of state" grounds and keeps absolutely no dialogue with the Real Left, at least its strongest force: EH Bildu. As in the rest of the state they have suffered some notable erosion, Gipuzkoa excepted, where they bounced slightly and got their best performance.

The PSN-PSOE has lost 7,000 votes in Navarre relative to 2011 (total 43,000), falling from 16% to 13%. It is also irrelevant in the coalition games in most places. This no doubt owes largely to their staunchly support for the corrupt UPN government only not to go along EH Bildu.

In Araba the collapse has been even worse, losing 7,000 votes (total 18,000) and falling from 16% to 11%. 

In Biscay the PSOE loses 19,000 votes (total 72,000) and drops from 16% to 13%, i.e. much like in Navarre. Critically they lost the second largest town and one of their historical strongholds, Barakaldo, to the PNV. In all the Greater Bilbao they only remain vote leaders in Portugalete, being their only other plaza the village of Ermua.

In Gipuzkoa however the PSOE holds well, gaining some 7000 votes and growing one percent point to 19%. They retain Irun and Eibar. 

3. The Basque-Regionalist "Center" (EAJ-PNV and Geroa Bai):

Much like the PSOE, this party does not anymore honors its name of Nationalist. It is de facto a regionalist force at the service of Spain and is also reactionary and cronyist enough to follow the doomsday path of UPN in Navarre, privatizing public banks, investing huge sums in absurd projects like the bullet train and what-not.

However it seems the time of their collapse is yet to come. They have in fact performed very well. 

In Navarre the PNV is tiny (they lost all credibility in the 1980s and could never recover it, much less being as Biscay-centric as they are), however they are part of the coalition Geroa Bai, surely more to the center-left, which they see as their own pet-project (after all left-leaning forces left it in favor of EH Bildu) although they do not control it. Let's begin by these:

Geroa Bai in Navarre loses 7,000 votes compared with Nafarroa Bai (which included forces now in EH Bildu), totaling 29,000 votes (9%) in municipal elections. It has performed better in the regional election (I don't have the data right now but they get the same representation as EH Bildu and even some more votes) because of the personal charisma of Uxue Barkos, no doubt, and also because it may have attracted "moderate" voters for change and for Basque identity. 

The PNV in Araba keeps approximately the same number of votes (34,000) but loses one percent point (21%). It gets to pick partner for coalition, either PP or EH Bildu, as these two don't talk to each other.

In Biscay it loses 3000 votes (total 215,000) but gains half percent point (38%). It will rule (again, in coalition with PSOE) the region and capital, as well as most municipalities, adding to their trophy shelf the second largest town (Barakaldo) and the historical capital (Gernika, where the mayor will be the same person, who changed parties). It also gets other referential towns from EH Bildu, notably Bermeo and Lekeitio.

Gipuzkoa is however the great victory for the jeltzaleak (partisans of God and the Old Law, JEL in Basque acronym), growing in 28,000 votes (total 111,000) and jumping from 21% to 31%. They gain (in coalition with PSOE) the regional government, the capital San Sebastian and many other towns like Tolosa. The media manipulation of issues like the recycling conflict or the issue of the European cultural capital may have weighted a lot on this. 

4. The Unionist Right (PP and UPN):

These two sibling parties are clearly the saddest ones. The PP barely gets any representation in the Western Basque Country, excepted Araba. 

In Biscay they lose 30,000 votes, falling to 8% (from 13%).

In Gipuzkoa they lose 15,000 votes, almost half, falling to 5% (from 10%).

In Araba however they even gain a few hundred resisting in the 25% share of voters. This is largely because of the demagogic xenophobic attitude of the Mayor of Vitoria-Gasteiz Javier Maroto. They will probably hold control of the capital's City Hall and be a key player in regional governance coalitions. 

In Navarre the PP (running separately from UPN) experiences serious loses: almost 8000 votes, falling from 6% to 3%. 

Its close ideological relative, the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), is much stronger in the Old Kingdom and holds relatively well, considering its loss of prestige on corruption and mismanagement grounds. They lose 9,000 votes, falling from 28% to 24%. It may seem a minor setback but it is catastrophic in terms of their ability to retain power because of the parallel and more dramatic loses of their allies (PP and PSOE) and the determination of the change coalition (Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and United Left). They will lose the regional government, the capital Iruñea-Pamplona, all of Pamplona's suburbs and many other towns, including some rather to the south like Tafalla.

In synthesis:

The Unionist parties tend to fall, particularly the PP. The PSOE also suffers and the loss of power in Navarre is almost total for the unionists. The PNV instead gets consolidated, strongly advanced in Gipuzkoa at the expense of the Nationalist Left. The Real Left tends to advance but more strongly in Navarre and Araba, more weakly in Biscay and clearly experiencing loses in Gipuzkoa in spite of a model administration in many aspects (but maybe a bit arrogant and self-centered in issues where the adversaries have won the battle of demagogy). Much of the advance can be attributed to the Podemos phenomenon, although clearly not all. 

The fragmentation of the Real Left and the underlying conflict on the National issue are no doubt crucial matters to be worked out. On one hand it is possible that the Basque Nationalist Left is sometimes over-emphasizing the national aspect over the social and class aspect, on the other the all-Spain associated Left has been doing the opposite, causing disaffection to many possible sympathizers for whom being Basque and Basque freedoms are a central issue, regardless of whatever possible collaboration with the Spanish worker class. Hence the Podemos-style lists get better performance in the South, where the national feeling is weaker, while the get little or nothing in the North instead. 

Another issue, less important here but not absent, is the Podemos vs United Left conflict for the hegemony of the Real Left, which is still raging, not just between both forces but also with fractures inside them (most notably in United Left but also inside Podemos sometimes, with the grassroots of Podemos in Bilbao impelling a different municipal list than the parties' coalition blessed by Podemos Madrid, what split the vote and reduced the representation).

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Data from Naiz Info, you may want to check it for further detail: Navarre, Araba, Biscay and Gipuzkoa.

Fragmented but clear victory of the real left in Spain's elections (updated)

The new Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau

The next Mayor of Barcelona will be, beyond reasonable doubt, the former leader of the Anti-Evictions Platform, Ada Colau, leading a nearly unitary left platform Barcelona in Common. It is possible that the same will happen in Madrid, even if the the PP is the most voted party, just barely above of Manuela Carmona's platform Madrid Now. In Valencia the PP also managed to get a narrow plurality of the votes, with the leftist coalition Compromís (alliance of federalist and nationalist forces) being a close second and a strong candidate to lead the new ruling coalition. 

In these two cases the PSOE, nominally a left-wing party but effectively just another lackey of the bankster mafia, will have the key, however the wrong decisions can cost them their very existence (the PASOK's example is mentioned often), as the voters are clearly much less willing to pardon class treason these days and the shadow of Podemos has grown very large.

Likely new mayor of A Coruña, Xulio Ferreiro

Other towns where the so-called Popular Unity forces (akin to Podemos and United Left but largely independent from them) have made a decisive breakthrough and will be able to rule, if pacts allow, are Zaragoza (Zaragoza in Common), Cádiz (For Cádiz), A Coruña (Atlantic Tide), O Ferrol and Santiago de Compostela (Open Compostela).

Another highlight is the change in Navarre, where the various forces vocally opposing the UPN (regionalist but allied to the PP and similarly implicated in corruption scandals) have managed to muster majority in both Pamplona and the whole of Navarre.

In Catalonia it must be mentioned also the important advance of the Nationalist Left force Popular Unity List (CUP), which will probably rule Reus among other towns. However the Right Nationalism of Convergence & Union is still very strong. What has collapsed in Catalonia is the support for the unionist forces altogether, which, barring a few industrial towns with high Spanish-ancestry population, obtains nearly nothing.

It is clear that change is happening in many cities and regions. However the overall reality of the many towns and regions is way too complex and diverse, with no clear trend other than a very clear slide to the left everywhere.

Some of the new 'popular unity' wins or near wins (source: Diagonal)

Follows a synthesis of the regional (autonomous communities') results:

Madrid

The tories (PP) will be able to rule the capital's region (but surely not the capital city itself) by virtue of the likely support of the very similar maverick party Ciudadanos (xenophobic, posh, demagogic) as the hypothetical Podemos-PSOE coalition doesn't reach enough seats to muster a majority. However they have suffered massive loses and Podemos has become the third party with 19% of the vote. 

Sudden gloom of Valencian Mayor Barberá

Valencian Country

The PSOE will hold the key to governance and it is theoretically possible a left-leaning coalition made up by PSOE, Compromís and Podemos. However this party still has to make its decisions either in favor of a clear socialist agenda (that they lack in spite of their name) or in favor of the old regime. 

Castile-León

The PP barely managed to retain a majority in spite of clearly losing supports. It is the only region when it manages to do that. 

Asturias

The PSOE holds the key to governance and is also the most voted party so in principle they should lead a left-leaning coalition. However, as it happened in Andalusia (with a caretaker government two months after elections) it is possible that won't get the support of Podemos (third force and 9 seats) because they are unable to accept their "red line" demands, such as not collaborating with banks involved in home evictions. 

Cantabria

The Regionalist Party of Cantabria, formerly led by popular moderate conservative Revilla, is the most voted party and will most likely manage to form government. Podemos and Ciudadanos only get weak results in this region.

La Rioja

PP retains a strong plurality and will probably rule with the passive or active support of Ciudadanos. Notably the regionalist Partido Riojano gets no representation for the first time in many decades.

Scientist-turned-politician Pablo Echenique
leads Podemos in Aragón

Aragón

The PSOE holds here again the key to governance, even if it is the second most backed party, the third being Podemos. These two parties would need the support of the Chunta Aragonsesita (Aragonese Nationalist Left) and United Left anyhow to form a majority. Again it is unclear if the liberal politics of the PSOE and the socialist and participative ones of Podemos can be made compatible. 

Balearic Islands

Strong result of the nationalist left coalition Més (14%) and Podemos (15%). However the PSOE again holds the key to governance. 

Extremadura

The best result in all the state for the PSOE still leaves them short of a majority. It is possible but unclear that they form coalition with Podemos (not too strong in this rural region) or that they rule in minority with punctual pacts.

Castile-La Mancha

Pretty much like its neighor region Extremadura (see above). 

Murcian Country

The PP manages to hold strong, just one seat short of the absolute majority. They should be able to rule with the active or passive support of Ciudadanos.

Canary Islands

In spite of the strong advance of the left forces (PSOE holds, Podemos irrupts with 6 seats and Nueva Canarias grows slightly) and the huge loses of the PP, the regionalist right (Canarian Coalition) does hold pretty well and will surely be able to form government with PP support.

Galicia

Even if the Northwestern Iberian country only held elections to town councils and provincial governments, the massive advance of the popular unity lists and the collapse of the PP in one of its traditional strongholds is very significant. The only nationalist force running on its own (others joined the popular unity lists), the Galician Nationalist Bloc, has also suffered, as has the PSOE.

Regional governance map after elections. Color-code:
PP-led right majority
regionalist-led right majority
left majority but including PSOE
left majority without PSOE

Basque Country

I would like to discuss later (update: done!) on in greater depth the issue of Navarre particularly but here goes an advance of the political evolution in the Southern Basque Country:

Uxue Barkos (GB) appears as
the new Navarrese President

Navarre

After many many decades of UPN-PSOE effective coalition, these two old regime parties would not be anymore able to rule neither in Navarre nor in Pamplona. 

In both the Navarrese Parliament and the City Council of Pamplona an array of four political forces, each running separately but in agreement about the urgent need to replace the rotten UPN government add up to a narrow but sufficient majority. Therefore we can expect a coalition of Geroa Bai (Basque Nationalist Center), EH Bildu (Basque Nationalist Left), Podemos and United Left. Podemos has obtained in Navarre one of the best results of the whole state probably because its members and leaders were decided to make things change in the region and would not accept the intromission of Madrid. 

Western Basque Country

The Western Basque Country sees the consolidation of the right-wing nationalist (or rather regionalist these days) Basque Nationalist Party, which holds with modest loses in Biscay, advances in Gipuzkoa, where it will probably take both the provincial government and the mayorship of San Sebastian to EH Bildu, and loses in Araba. It also took the second largest town of Biscay, Barakaldo, to the PSOE, pretty much ending decades of "socialist" government in the working class and largely Spanish-descendant Left Bank of the Bilbao Estuary. 

The jeltzaleak, as the PNV followers are known, will need anyhow of the support of the PSOE, which experiences some but not overwhelming erosion, to rule in most power seats. 

The situation in Araba is however extremely complex with the PSOE having lost its traditional position as fourth contender to Podemos. However the stand of Podemos in the Western Basque Country is most ambiguous and anyhow EH Bildu plus Podemos plus Irabazi (expanded United Left) don't muster enough seats to form a majority. They would need of the PSOE but the PSOE just won't talk to EH Bildu, so the most likely end result is a two party coalition in minority led by the PNV. 

Conclusion

So in general: good performance of the real left, with some very significant game-changing highlights in cities like Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and also in territories like Navarre. Still in most cases the PSOE holds the key to governance and it is very possible, considering its leaders and policies, that will follow the European fad of coalitions with the right. It is unclear however if this will pay off as for the PASOK in Greece (catastrophic debacle) or as for the PD in Italy (reinforcement at the expense of the right).

I suspect that the next move of the Twin Party will be to call snap general elections in order to allow for PP-PSOE coalitions nearly everywhere, without having to pay for that alliance against nature in the next four years. This proposal is what the controversial acting-Mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá has brought forth, apparently in order to defend her corruption and cronyism: a state pact PP-PSOE "against the radicals". At worse the elections are scheduled for October but I would not be surprised if they are moved forth to June.

It is also notable that there are major regional differences: in some areas like Madrid, Aragón, Navarre, Galicia, Valencia, Balearic Islands and some urban areas of Catalonia, the forces of change are clearly performing strong. The erosion of EH Bildu in the Western Basque Country is just mild and irregular, so it can also be considered a stronghold of the forces of change, as happens with Cádiz and the revolutionary stronghold of Marinaleda in Andalusia, where the CUT repeats victory after 40 years in power. However in Castile (various regions, Madrid excepted), Andalusia, Asturias and Canary Islands, the change process seems quite a bit stagnated, it must be said.

Because of the very rigged electoral system, which gives 2 base deputies to every province, before apportioning the rest on population, and 4 senators, regardless of population, these largely rural and underdeveloped areas of what is, in essence, Greater Castile weight heavily on how the Spanish Parliament will be configured, electing 156 of the 350 deputies: a clear majority that does not correlate with population. This clearly favors the bipartisan (Twin Party) system and is key to the deciding power of the social-liberal PSOE, which now occupies the center of the political spectrum.

_________________________________ . _________________________________

Note: for full details you may want to check a page like this one of the newspaper Público, which I used as partial source.

Upcoming elections in Navarre: will there be change?

Based on the latest poll by the CIS (official Spanish sociological institute), I believe that the answer is yes but that depends on whether you believe the direct voting intention answers or the "cooked" (pondered) results, which are highly suspicious. 

Let's see:

• [list - direct vote intention - cooked results]
• Podemos - 14 - 11
• EH Bildu - 10 - 7
• UPN - 7 - 11/12
• PSOE - 6 - 6
• Geroa Bai - 5 - 5
• Ciudadanos - 4 - 4/5
• PP - 2 - 3
• IU - 2 - 2 

The cooking is very simple and obvious: right-wing unionist parties (UPN, PP, C's) get a serious plus, left-wing rupturist parties (Podemos, EH Bildu) get a big minus. All the rest (even the institutional PSOE) remain just at the express voting intention level. 

Navarre elects a Parliament of 50 seats in a single district with D'Hont system assignment of seats to closed lists (which becomes nearly proportional for such a large number of seats). The elections will take place on May 24, along with other regional and municipal elections across the Spanish state.

Unlike in most of other regions Podemos Navarre is lead by independents who are not too keen to obey to what Madrid (Iglesias' clique) says and most likely will favor a coalition for change with EH Bildu (i.e. with anyone ready to break the continuity of the eternal UPN-PSOE coalition), as stated in their primaries' program. Hence I do think that we can really hope for a big change in Navarre for the good. 

The coalition will still need 26 seats to gather a comfortable majority (what seems to imply at least three parties) however if no such majority is achieved the most voted list can form government and rule in minority, as the current UPN government of Yolanda Barcina is doing thanks to the passive support of the PSOE.

Note: for those unfamiliar with Navarrese politics, this is my synthesis:

• Unionist tories (bordering fascism often): UPN, PP, Ciudadanos
• Unionist labor (decadent social-liberal): PSOE
• Federalist left: Podemos, IU
• Basque nationalist left: EH Bildu
• Basque nationalist center(?): Geroa Bai

On the upcoming elections in the Southern Basque Country

As municipal and regional Southern Basque elections loom (one month to go), I've grown somewhat curious about what do the opinion polls tell, what to expect?

The most interesting scenario is that of Navarre, where radical political change is very much anticipated after almost 40 years of Twin Party regime, in which UPN (Navarrese branch of the PP, conservatives) and PSOE (social-liberals) have supported each other against the Basque Nationalist Left, the only real opposition force (along with the much smaller United Left, now just The Left in Navarre). The corruption scandals particularly have taken a major toll for the pseudo-regionalist UPN, but also for the PSOE, who have supported them and rejected snap elections, extending the agony unnecessarily. 

We have two different polls both from March 2015. In one the Ancien Régime collapses, in the other the Ancien Régime miraculously survives albeit in a very fragmented form. What to believe?

A peculiarity of the Navarrese system is that, much as happens in municipal corporations, the party or list with the largest number of seats may form government unless another majority is formed by coalition, so it is still possible that UPN manages to form government if opposition forces can't agree to something better or if they don't reach the threshold of 26 seats. 

source: Electrograph

source: Electrograph

Legend or who-is-who:

• UPN (Navarrese People's Union): reactionary unionist pseudo-regionalist party allied to all-Spain PP, dramatically shattered by corruption scandals in the last years.
• EH Bildu (Rally the Basque Nation): Basque Nationalist Left, coalition of four parties around Sortu (Create), which represents continuity with former incarnations of the Basque Nationalist Left.
• Podemos (We Can): new Spanish radical-reformist party, whose performance in European elections and opinion polls threatens the establishment.
• PSOE (Spanish Worker Socialist Party): unionist social-liberals who rally the working class for the benefit the banksters. In clear decline for that very reason.
• Geroa Bai (Yes to the Future): residual leftover of the Nafarroa Bai coalition, which still retains some backing because of its independent leader Uxue Barkos, in spite of most component parties migrating to EH Bildu.
• PP (People's Party): reactionary unionist all-Spain party, currently in power in Madrid, also shattered by many corruption scandals.
• n (Izquierda-Ezkerra: The Left): Navarrese branch of all-Spain United Left, a federalist, eco-communist coalition around the Communist Party of Spain.
• C's (Ciudadanos: Citizens): Le Pen with a shallow make-up. A xenophobic Spanish nationalist conservative party that is dangerously climbing in the opinion polls in the last months.

So which scenario will take place in Navarre after the May elections? Truth is that I do not know but I do hope for something like the first one, where a coalition of EH Bildu, Podemos, Geroa Bai and Izquierda-Ezkerra can save the battered Old Kingdom and revitalize it. 

If something like the second scenario is the final result, we can only expect more of the same. That would be very sad.

In the Western Basque Country instead change will most likely be minor. The January poll gave a very strong performance to Podemos but the March poll shows a quite weaker implementation of this new party, something that is in agreement with opinion polls from Spain in general. 

Here in Biscay, we will continue stuck with the tiresome hegemony by the petty-bourgeois Basque Nationalist Party, being the only Basque region where they retain a clear dominance. They do suffer some erosion but not enough to challenge their dominant position. So more of the same, although no doubt there will be a stronger opposition with the irruption of Podemos as third force, at the expense mostly of the Spanish unionist Twin Party. 

In Gipuzkoa, where EH Bildu has ruled the last four years, everybody seems to keep their positions but all them eroded to greater or lesser extent by the irruption of Podemos. It's safe to think that EH Bildu will continue governing from an even stronger position and with the same general line, which can well be labeled as classical social-democrat, thanks to a predictable coalition with the maverick Spanish party. 

In Araba the only predictable thing is that there will be a hung parliament with five forces (used to be four) each getting a sizable fraction of it. Most likely the Basque Nationalist Party, occupying the de facto center position (which in the Basque case is not just about right-left but also about unionism-independentism) will be the one holding the scales and grabbing the seat of Deputy General therefore. But we better wait for the results anyhow. 

The iron hand of the Aranist sect

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV), in spite of belonging to the Ancien Régime as much as any of the other parties being shattered by the political storm spearheaded by Podemos, has somehow managed to remain relatively untouched by corruption scandals. It is not that the scandals do not exist but rather that the raison-d'état of the state- or bourgeois-held media and the NATOist coalition of political muppets hides them systematically. 

The Basque Nationalist Party is the last line of Spanish unionism in the Basque Country (or rather its Western and most populated third) and the Spaniards know it so they won't even dare to expose the many dirty affairs in which the Aranist force is sunk deep to the eyebrows.

But part of the blame must also fall on the Basque Nationalist Left, which hopelessly hopes for a day in which the Aranists wake up and decide to join them in a push for the independence of the Basque Country. The overall drift of the Basque Nationalist Left has been for much more moderate positions, still very radical for the Ancien Régime but not at all radical enough for a growing sector of its bases, who feel alienated by the new course.

Its continuous vacuous pleas to EAJ-PNV to join forces for independence, its rather pathetic attempts to compete with them for the center of the Basque nationalist political spectrum instead of properly rallying the multicultural Basque worker class and the weakness of its participative structures are taking a serious toll. Toll that may not yet be too apparent in electoral results but is clear in the street and online talk.

The failures of Podemos

Podemos arose with the pretense of being a radical participative new party but has since then drifted dramatically to personalism and centralism. The main exceptions are a handful of regional formations, including Navarre, Aragon, etc., where the officialist lists have not been able to rally the bases in clear but not yet admitted defeat of the Iglesias clique. 

This centralization of the party has obviously disenfranchised many potential voters. The extremely challenging declarations of their leaders against the independence of Catalonia have necessarily also alienated many possible voters, not just in Catalonia but also in the Basque Country, Galicia, etc. 

Disappointment is growing inside and outside the party even before they can rule for all these reasons that exclude key potential supports: anticapitalists and independentists, as well as those focused on true participative democracy. In the end it's not too clear what Podemos stands for or how is it different from other parties.

They still manage to rally many of the discontents but they seem to have touched their ceiling of growth. Additionally the regime has very actively promoted a xenophobic reactionary party (Ciudadanos), which masks itself under a pretense of renovation and an anti-corruption populist discourse, eroding various parties but also Podemos. Of course the media attacks against Podemos have been systematic, using lesser accountancy errors of one of their leaders as if it'd be a clear example of corruption within the new party and accusing them of being pro-Venezuela, which the media systematically characterizes as a dictatorship in spite of being a very respectful and inclusive democracy. 

Probably the weakness of the stand of Syriza before the EU (less weak than it may seem but not radical enough quite clearly) and internally has also affected Podemos somewhat because both parties are seen as similar (although Syriza has no doubt a much more solid team and militancy than its Spanish counterpart).

But in my understanding the greatest weakness of Podemos is it relative low level of internal democracy in spite of the discourse, something that in the end makes it similar to other parties and is a major systematic weakness of the real Left parties, affecting, as I mentioned above, also EH Bildu or its core party Sortu, what alienates much of its grassroots support sooner than later.

Imagine that there is a pro-occupation demo and nobody goes...

Go away!!

Yes, I'm paraphrasing the old war resisters' slogan "Imagine that there is a war and nobody goes". It's not that different in fact and that is exactly what happened.

Far right groups called for a demo in Pamplona in support of the Spanish occupation forces. Only some ten fanatics showed up and the demo was canceled right away by the organizers, admittedly because nobody had come.

It seems obvious that NOBODY supports the Spanish military and police occupation or Navarre or the Basque Country in general.

Source: Sare Antifaxista[es].



Update (Sep 24):

Image of the demo:

Satire of the failed demo:

Source: BGD!

Protests take over San Fermin procession

The traditional San Fermin procession of July 7th in Iruñea-Pamplona took place under great tension as most watchers were actually protesting against the Neofascist regime that has ruined Navarre by means of Capitalist corruption (scandalous sell-off of public banks and other services).

The main cry heard was UPN kanpora!, which translates as UPN out! Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN) is the regional branch of the Neofascist People's Party in power in Madrid, which has ruled Navarre with the help of other unionists (PSN-PSOE) for decades now, succumbing to the maelstrom of UE-led corruption that has seen the public assets liquidated to the only benefit of private investors predators and their political cronies. The people of Navarre is clearly tired of such abuses and demands elections now.

San Fermin: police state fails again

The internationally famous fiestas of Iruñea-Pamplona are back and, yet another year, the Neo-Fascist  government has attempted by all means to impede that the Basque National claim be present in the inaugural txupin (rocket launching cum discourse).

Police patrolled the roofs and tightly controlled the accesses to the City Hall Plaza, the turn of Basque Nationalist Left coalition EH Bildu to cast the inaugural discourse was arbitrarily skipped in favor of the Red Cross (reactionary lapdog charity). They did all they could to keep the cry of the Basques out of the Plaza... but to no avail:

 Neither Madrid, nor Barcina, nor Felipe... 
                   Navarre decides!                         
                    INDEPENDENCE                        

Sources: Berria (article, photo gallery), Naiz Info (article 1, article 2, photo gallery). Photos by Argazki Press.

Navarre: institutional apology of historical fascist terror protected by today's fascist prohibition of protest

Rally poster

The rally called by Ahaztuak 1936-1977 for Friday in Pamplona was suspended after the Spanish Government forbade it and therefore would have been attacked by police forces, making protest nearly impossible and most risky.

The rally, which has been moved to the next weekend, was meant to protest for the institutional apology of fascist terrorism by the Spanish Army's infamous "America 66" regiment, which raped and murdered many citizens in Valdedios, Asturias, in 1937.

The regiment, still active, is being institutionally honored for their alleged "service to Spain" with an exposition in the Citadel of Pamplona (a fortress meant to control the oft rebellious city) with the support of the far-right unionist city council.

The popular anger about this act of fascist apology by the neo-Francoist Spanish Regime is so strong that the authorities ordered to protect the citadel with a massive police deployment. 

Four antimilitarist activists of the Conscientious Objection Movement (KEM-MOC, War Resistants International) attempted to enter the fascist exposition dressed in denounce costumes as publicity men but were impeded to do so by police. 

United Left has denounced the exposition at court. 

For the organizers, Ahaztuak 1936-1977 (The Forgotten Ones 1936-1977, an association dedicated to the recovering of the historical memory and denounce of the many crimes against Humankind of the Spanish Fascist regime):

The prohibition is another instance of the persistence of the Spanish model of impunity that we have denounced since long ago, a model where the insult to the victims of Francoism and the impunity of their aggressors are combined; the continuous obstacles to mobilizations and claims by the victims of Fascism, together with all the facilitations and praise for the Francoist criminals; the abandonment by the institutions of our denounces and claims, together with the help and support by those same institutions to the Francoist criminals via subsidies and homages like this one we pretend to denounce... a prohibition that furthermore takes place in a city that, to greater shame, still retains other Francoist symbols: a mausoleum "to the fallen for God and for Spain", were putschist generals Mola and Sanjurjo rest and are honored yearly by their acolytes.

Sources[es]: Ahaztuak 1936-1977, Naiz Info.

Zero tolerance against fascism: Erronkari mobilizes against fascist intrusion

This Sunday a handful of Spanish fascists traveled to such a remote location as Erronkari, in NE Navarre, to hold a political rally with a pseudo-ecologist pretext. The counter-mobilization of the people of this Pyrenean valley forced them to march through the mountains to reach the bus that would bring them back to Hell, wherever in Spain that is.

Only intense military police protection impeded that they were lynched on the spot.

Zero tolerance against fascism!

10,000 march in Pamplona against Christian Fundamentalista anti-women law

Some 10,000 people, mostly women, marched yesterday in Iruñea-Pamplona in defense of the right to decide on their own bodies, a fundamental right that may be severely restricted by the Neo-Fascist government of Madrid (PP).

'Our body, our choice'

They explained:

We need sexual education to be able to decide freely, contraceptives to prevent abortion and free abortion to prevent killing. Suddenly sexual and pregnancy rights are being thrown to the trash bin with this new law, sending us back to the Franco dictatorship, and we will not accept that. 

They also criticized the outraging process of privatization of abortion services. 

After decades of quite liberal abortion laws, Spanish far-right minister Gallardón is promoting a new abortion law which will make free choice a crime for nearly all cases, in an obvious attempt to return to the Fundamentalist Christian ideology of the Franco era. 

The sociological reality however is not at all in line with such extremist intolerant ideas and the bill is causing a serious social conflict, even inside the ranks of the conservative party in power.

Source[eu]: Berria.

Interview with Andalusian Workers Union leader Diego Cañamero (video in Spanish)

The repressed and censored Basque counter-information site Ateak Ireki (Open the Doors) is still available for those connecting from outside the Spanish legal prison of peoples and therefore I still get uncensored feeds even if I can't directly contact with the site. I can also reach to their YouTube account without problems.

Today they publish an interview with Diego Cañamero, leader of the combative Andalusian Workers Union (SAT), which has promoted supermarket and land expropriations in order to highlight the extreme social injustice that the Capitalist system provokes in Andalusia. Therefore he has dozens of legal cases open against him, as happens with many other activists of this union and sympathizers, but has declared himself total resister against trials, ignoring citations. He explains that he has been repressed with every single government, so let them do whatever they will.

Partly in an attempt to overcome neo-fascist censorship, I am translating below the text surrounding the video but I cannot translate the video-interview itself, which is in Spanish language.

From Ateak Ireki (censored in Spain):

[Video] Diego Cañamero (SAT): "We are legitimate to throw down governments who do not fulfill their word".

The speaker of the Andalusian Workers Union announces that they are preparing a great march to Madrid, to be participated by unions and social movements from all the state, including its nationalities.

Ateak Ireki has used the visit of Diego Cañamero to Iruñea [Pamplona] to speak in length with him on the economic, political and social situation in the State of Spain.

Cañamero assures that the land is "not any merchandise" but a good that must be "at the service of all human beings".

After recalling that he has been arrested in the dictatorship and under all and each governments of "democracy", he states that "the repression against the people who struggles has not changed" but that, nevertheless, this repression "never could defeat the justice of the peoples".

In this sense, the speaker of the Andalusian Workers Union underlines that "a society which does not rebel against injustice is accomplice" of it and that, right now, "unity is the great challenge of the transformer left". 

He reminds also that "people have not authorized with their vote the delay of retirement age, that [public] money is given to banks, that the baby check is removed, nor that public workers lose their extra pay nor that pensions get reduced", reason why he considers that "the people is legitimate to depose governments" who do not fulfill their word. 

In this line, he announces that they are preparing with unions and social movements "large marching columns to collapse Madrid".

Basque Country: thousands support Inquisition victim

Luis Goñi has become the latest prisoner of conscience of the Basque Country but not without a fight.

Goñi, who is persecuted for his political activism and no other reason, as so many other Basques, stood in the center of Iruñea-Pamplona, sheltered by a large human wall.

The protest continued all day and only in the night, police finally intervened, violently enough to cause  injuries to at least three.

Video of the police intervention and arrest:

A great bravo for the Navarrese people, especially the youth, who were there in large numbers. This kind of nonviolent actions seldom impede Inquisitorial repression but they do serve to evidence the repression itself and its fascist nature, eroding the power of the authorities, which in our country are foreign invaders with zero legitimacy. 

Sources[es/eu]: Naiz Info, Gara.

Basque Country: giant banner and other activities against political repression in Navarre

As political repression against all those who dare to express their disagreement with the Christian Fundamentalist pro-Spanish regime in Navarre increases, so does rebellion.

Activists masked with fake beards, dark glasses and hats took to the roofs of the Old Quarter of Iruñea-Pamplona to raise a giant banner over Gaztelu Plaza, where Pompey (who gives name to the city) raised his camp more than 2000 years ago and the center of the city to this very day.

The triangular banner, resembling a festive neckerchief, read simply Askegunea badator, that is: the Freedom Zone (Askegunea) is coming. This refers to the activities in support of the victims of political persecution that will take place this weekend, with a march from Gares to Obanos[eu] on Saturday and a demonstration, followed by festive activities, in Iruñea-Pamplona on Sunday. 

In another video[eu], one of those persecuted by the Spanish Inquisition, Luis Goñi, explains that he will be around in Pamplona (but not in the march) this Sunday, openly risking arrest.

Source: Ateak Ireki[es]. 

Basque Country: to jail for protesting in Pamplona

The totalitarian repression in Navarre has been increasing in the last decades, up to the point that citizens who just express their opinions publicly are getting not just beatings and fines but very serious prison sentences. 

One person was already punished to 5 years and 3 months of prison for the incidents in the protests of the San Fermin procession of 2011.

Now 13 citizens involved in the attempt of deployment of a giant Basque flag in 2010 are again being asked for penalties that total 33 years of prison (state attorney) or 160 years (private accusation).

The situation of widespread repression by the Spanish occupants reminds of the time of Fascism.

Source: Ateak Ireki[es] (incl. video of the clashes).

Basque Country: another political arrest

Xabier Sagardoi "Xapo" (pictured) was arrested today in Sorlada (Navarre) after he decided, days ago, go into hiding to avoid prison. Xapo was indicted for being a member of the independentist youth organization Segi, arbitrarily declared illegal by the occupant forces. He was sentenced to six years of prison for the only "crime" of being coherent with his ideas. It is yet another clear case of political persecution under the doctrine of "all is ETA". 

Source: Ateak Ireki[es].

Basque Country: one arrested on Burger King protests

One person has been arrested today in Iruñea-Pamplona (Navarre) accused of "coercion" in a Burger King restaurant. The exact details are not known yet but the junk food facility has been the target of many anti-Imperialist and anti-Capitalist protests as of late. 

Source: Ateak Ireki[es].

Basque Country: Altsasu occupied by military police in fiestas

Spanish military police (Guardia Civil) occupied on Friday the town of Altsasu (Sakana valley, Navarre) in the middle of its fiestas after fascist-like rampage by the Spanish-imposed provincial governor Carmen Alba. 

In 2011 the same fascist proconsul attempted to indict Mayor Garazi Urrestarazu on a festive parody of a royal discourse, now she charges again against the Ospa Eguna, which may be translated as Celebration Day (ospatu = celebrate) or as Go Away Day (ospa! = go away!, coll.) but hardly as Runaway Day, as the ignorant Alba said. 

Whatever the case she has unilaterally declared illegal the festive acts on the absolutely arbitrary grounds that such acts "have not been communicated to the state administration", as if we'd have to tell the occupants about every single local activity we organize in our towns and villages. The acts include a demonstration and the burning of a doll.

The military cops literally surrounded the town with controls and even entered the festive area threatening in Spanish to "clean it up of shit" (what "shit"? are you going to shoot yourselves dead?) 

In spite of all that the activities continued as intended, no matter that a helicopter roared threateningly above the fire of the doll. People showed a lot of bravery dancing and playing among the threatening police occupants.

Witnesses declared:

It was brutal, disproportionate! 

We suffered an incredible police deployment: the people were surrounded by automatic guns. 

For example, when some 200 people took part in the bertso* dinner, they were surrounded by almost the same number of armed cops. Forced identifications and verbal intimidation were common in the day. Town Hall representatives explained that:

It was to drive you crazy. We did not enter into the provocation and in a bertsolari* town as we live in, citizens went on improvising, and also sortzikoak, polkas, Basque dances and games they performed to impress the military policemen, as saying: "here we are and we will stay here". 

Repression no! Go away. Leave Altsasu in peace.

I must say that nothing of all this was in TV news yesterday, neither in the Spanish channels (of course) nor in the Basque ones.

Sources[eu]: Gara, Naiz Info.


* Bertsoak are a form of improvised song, usually in humorous duels, traditional among Basques. The singers are known as bertsolari(-ak).

Update (Sep 2): it has been known now that a young man was arrested, apparently for "answering back" to the verbal aggressions by the police forces → Topatu.info.

Basque Country: fascist terrorist group threatens mayors with death

Mayors and councilors of EH Bildu denounced the threats

The cell known as Falange y Tradición was in the recent past involved in terrorist threats and embryonic terrorist organization. Their components were eventually arrested but later released without charges. 

The fascist gang clearly enjoys protection from the regime's twin party as was evident when one of its members was invited to Basque TV (ETB) under the anti-democratic rule of the Spanish regime's parties, issuing all kind of racist insults and threats. 

Now, under a new name, they have arrogantly decreed "death penalty" to the mayors of Baztan and Elizondo unless they place the Spanish flag and get rid of Basque ones and pro-prisoner banners. 

Text of the Spanish imperialist death threats

According to Sare Antifaxista this new "Navarrese Nationalist Grouping" is nothing but Falange y Tradición, whose leader J.I. Irusta and other members are well known.

What is clear is that the Spanish institutions are behind this criminal terrorist group, which is clearly pushing Basque patience to the extreme. If a murder happens, it is probable, I believe, that the whole unilateral "peace process" goes down the toilet altogether because you can't really ask the People not to defend their lives against direct murderous attacks like this one. It's clear to me that any such political murder will cause retaliation and this may cause a violent spiral that ends this rather fruitless "peace process" altogether.

Psy-op?

It's very possible that this is the kind of psy-op that Mariano Rajoy has been pondering to distract the attention from the socio-economic disintegration of Spain. Britain is a tad too big to push them too far but the Basque People may become a scapegoat of the inability of Spain to face its own dramatic problems. 

In this sense there's hardly anything that the Spanish nationalist stablishment could wish more than the return of the open war. They have done everything in their hands to sabotage any peace arrangement of any sort and it seems clear that they believe they are better with ETA than without ETA. They believe that Spaniards are stupid enough to forget their huge problems with unemployment, home evictions, lack of social support public infrastructures, deep corruption and collapse of the legitimacy of the whole post-Francoist political system. 

They are surely wrong. But they probably think they lose nothing trying old distraction tricks. 

But, if you ask me, I am pretty sure that such an escalation could end in the Yugoslavization of Spain, which is just too fragile internally in too many fronts (not just Basque Country and Catalonia but national dissidence is also growing in Galicia, Andalusia and even Canary Islands, while the rest is in deep social turmoil) to withstand any further conflicts. We are not anymore in the Fordist Era, Mariano (and the rest), Fascism simply does not work today: people just won't obey.

But they are desperate: they can really try anything to distract the attention.