The President of the Chartered Community of Navarre, Yolanda Barcina (Navarrese People's Union, unionist, conservative) ceased today her Vice-President Roberto Jiménez (Socialist Party, unionist, center-left), effectively breaking the coalition that ruled the Basque region since a year ago, as the Socialist Party has then walked away from the government.
The reason? Barcina claimed that the deficit of Navarre was of only €132 million, while Jiménez had suggested several times that it was about double and demanded an audit. Barcina considered the matter disloyalty and acted in consequence. However now she lacks a majority that can pass any law in Parliament, whose composition is depicted on the right, even with the unconditional support of their allies of the People's Party (PP, unionist, conservative) - they would need 26 seats and have just 23.
The situation now is wide open: Barcina can keep ruling from such a weak position for a while but she is most unlikely to be able to pass next year's budget, the various opposition parties, all them with more or less marked lefty tendencies, could agree to form government (they have the numbers) but putting together the unionist PSOE with the independentist coalitions Bildu and Nafarroa Bai seems nearly impossible. In fact a PSOE-Nationalist Left coalition has been speculated with since the early 80s and never ever happened.
So the most likely outcome in the mid run is early elections and, being realistic, that is what the Nationalist Left + Basque Solidarity + Alternative coalition (Bildu = Gathering) has asked for already.
However Patxi Zabaleta, leader of Aralar (a breakaway party of the Nationalist Left most strong in Navarre and part of the coalition Nafarroa Bai, Yes to Navarre, but nowadays closer to Bildu) proposes that the solution to this collapse not be rushed and to attempt once again that impossible coalition of the Navarrese Left. A reason, I speculate, may be that he and his party had not yet planned ahead for any such elections and, in the state-wide ones, they joined Bildu (in a coalition known as Amaiur that will now be renamed Euskal Herria Bildu (Gathering the Basque Nation) but dissidents ring-led by the right-wing Basque Nationalist Party captured most of their votes.
Regardless, he may have a point in attempting, at least to show the Navarrese people (again) that such solution does not work. Pedagogy for the win!
|Barcina (R) and Jiménez (L) before the breakup|
In any case, it seems clear that the split is deep, that it is paralleled by a split by the equivalent formations in the Western Basque Country (where a PSOE government in minority in an illegitimate parliament is just delaying the unavoidable elections for a few months more) and that it will most likely lead to elections by the end of the year at the latest.