Sunday, June 17, 2012

Greeks vote to continue down the road to the Haiti model

I have been saying since the Troika began imposing anti-social conditions to all those poisoned rescues that Greece has two paths before them: the path of Cuba (pride and self-reliance in a socialist model) or the path of Haiti (social and economic destruction, trampling into an ever-growing never-payable mountain of debt, permanent foreign intervention). 

Out of fear, Greeks have chosen today the latter: to re-establish a IMF-puppet government by the hand of the ones who began it all: the corrupt conservative party New Democracy and their pathetic allies of the Pan-Hellenic Socialist Party, who once claimed to be "socialist". 

The results are still only less than 60% as I write it but the advantage of ND is clear enough that Alexis Tsipras recognized their victory already. The conservatives have managed to rally around them all those who feared uncertainty and instability more than misery and exploitation. 

On the details

Overall it seems now that the results are as follows (source Wikipedia - updated, final results):
  1. New Democracy (ND, conservatives): 30% [+11 percentile points (in comparison with May elections)]
  2. Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA): 26% [+10 points]
  3. PASOK (ex-social-democrats): 12% [-1 point]
  4. Independent Greeks (ANEL, dissident conservatives): 8% [-3 points]
  5. Golden Dawn (XA, nazis): 7% [=]
  6. Democratic Left (DIMAR, dubious ex-SYRIZA bloc): 6% [=]
  7. Communist Party (KKE, Stalinists): 5% [-4 points]

Parliament should be roughly like follows (updated: final):
  1. ND: 129 seats (79 per votes + 50 for being the most voted party) [+21]
  2. SYRIZA: 71 seats [+19]
  3. PASOK: 33 seats [-8]
  4. ANEL: 20 seats [-13]
  5. XA: 18 seats [-3]
  6. DIMAR: 17 seats [-2]
  7. KKE: 12 seats [-14]

In general we can appreciate how the bi-polarization around the ND-SYRIZA duel has favored both contenders, even if not in exactly equal terms. 

In terms of voting percentages the overall parliamentary Left, including PASOK, gains +5 percentile points but the overall Right gains +8 percentile points instead. All them come from the minor parties. The overall parliamentary Left (if we can still count PASOK as such) is still sociologically dominant (50% vs. 42% of the parliamentary Right) but it is more fragmented, with even some of its members willing to be part of an ND-led Troika-dictated government. 

Never mind the Anarchists, who were even setting fire to polling stations... 

The pro-Troika parliamentary parties (ND and PASOK) add only 43% of the vote, so their technical majority is very fragile, and do not reach 50% even adding DIMAR, who rejects the memorandum only morally but claims that the acquired compromises must be honored no matter what... even if people dies in the process.

Geographically, (updated) this is the final map of first placed lists:

Even some areas of Athens and Thessaloníki are in blue, the color of ND, pink is being used to depict SYRIZA. Comparing with the map of May elections, we see a much more simplified puzzle, with both the KKE and PASOK not winning in any department anymore. Otherwise the general trends are very similar.


A very worrying situation overall: a conservative-dominated government, that already styled itself arrogantly violent and intolerant before the elections, with the dangerous "toy" of the Nazis consolidated and ready to kill - because they will kill no doubt after what have been doing these weeks, sometimes with police protection.

Overall Greece is clearly a left-leaning country but the divisions of the Left, the class treasons of some parties and the intransigence of others (Communist Party or extraparlamentarian Anarchists), are allowing the situation to continue degenerating. 

As for the EU and the IMF, contained one fire, they can begin to set up another... and this one is going to be very big and is going to be in Spain.

I want independence NOW!

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