Friday, June 8, 2012

Greece could well have an ample red majority after elections

Opinion polls are not allowed in Greece by law since May 30 and many of the latest ones suggested a slight but decisive majority by the bourgeois bloc ND-PASOK. I say decisive because the electoral law gives 50 seats (1/6 of all Parliament) to the first placed party.

However most opinion polls were wrong in the previous election, mis-estimating by a lot the results obtained by SYRIZA. This is normal if we consider that the polls are normally paid by media owned by members of the upper bourgeois class, who have a strong anti-communist bias. 

Only Public Issue and VPRC approached somewhat the 17% obtained (they suggested 13%), the rest were in the 9-11% zone, almost half the actual results. 

Today we are probably facing similar issues, with most of the latest opinion polls promising a thin victory (by less than one percentile point, what looks suspicious of retouch) for New Democracy (conservatives, pro-Memorandum).

But then there is this recent Public Issue poll[gr] (May 25-30) which suggests that the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) could gain nothing less than 31%, while ND would just get 25%. 

In terms of seats that would mean the following parliament (depending on whether the liberal-fascists of Recreate Greece would achieve or not the 3% required for representation):
  • SYRIZA (new school communists) 134-132
  • ND 68-62 (conservatives pro-Memorandum)
  • PASOK 36-35 (social-democrats pro-Memorandum)
  • DIMAR 20-19 (democratic socialists)
  • KKE (old school communists) 15-14
  • ANEL (conservatives anti-Memorandum) 15-14
  • Golden Dawn (nazi thugs) 12
  • Recreate Greece (fascist-liberals anti-immigration) 0-8

This would give SYRIZA ample possibilities to form government (needs 151 seats), even with the KKE if these would accept. But they are so irrationally extremist that they probably will reject all possible cooperation, leaving the best option a coalition with DIMAR, who broke up with SYRIZA just two years ago. 

Of course it is just an opinion poll but certainly all options are open for Greece this May 17th, maybe the most important day of recent history for the Mediterranean nation.

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