Monday, November 26, 2012

Catalan elections: independentists look to the left, unionists to the far right

Catalan elections for the autonomous parliament and government took place this Sunday. 

The results can be synthesized as follows (out of 135 deputies):
  • Convergence and Union (CiU, right-wing Catalan nationalist): 50 seats (-12)
  • Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC, center-left Catalan nationalist): 21 seats (+10)
  • Catalan Socialist Party (PSC-PSOE, center-left Spanish nationalist, vaguely "federalist"): 20 seats (-8)
  • People's Party (PP, right wing Spanish ultra-nationalist party): 19 seats (+1)
  • Initiative for Catalonia - Greens (ICV, left-wing federalist, affiliated to United Left): 13 (+3)
  • Citizens (Ciutadans, neofascist-populist Spanish ultra-nationalist, similar to UPyD elsewhere in Spain): 9 (+6)
  • People's Unity List (CUP, left-wing Catalan nationalist): 3(+3)
  • Catalan Solidarity for Independence (center-right, Catalan nationalist): 0 (-4)

So we see a flow to the left inside Catalan nationalism and rather to the right in Spanish nationalism. 

Overall the parties with a favorable attitude towards self-determination (including ICV) gain slightly (+1), while those stuck in the Spanish imperialist model lose slightly (-1). Notice however that there is and used to be a very strong Catalan nationalist majority (74 vs 48, plus 13 federalists for self-determination), also expressed in massive (1.5 million people) demonstrations in the streets repeatedly. However the independentist roll-over forecast by some did not materialize, showing that there is a stubborn colony of Spanish nationalist people living in Catalonia.

More important maybe is the overall slide towards the left  (+8 overall, +6 of them in the anticapitalist Left), specially marked in the Catalanist camp. The Spanish unionist camp clearly slides towards fascism, with the parties representing it in various forms (PP, Ciutadans) getting most of the voters' share: 28 seats (+7). 

The actual apportion of votes may be slightly different because of the electoral system, with four districts and modified apportion (D'Hont system).

Sources: EiTB[es], Catalan Wikipedia[cat].

Update: electoral maps per comarques (counties):

Most voted list:

Relative strength of independentism:

Based on vote to parties advocating independence (CiU, ERC, CUP, SC) or defending that Catalans cannot decide in their own country (sovereignty resides in Spain only: PSC, PP, Ciutadans, etc.). Lists like ICV, who accept self-determination but advocate federalism are considered neutral.

Large towns are indicated because there is an obvious correlation of industrialization, immigration and Spanish unionism.

It is probable that a more reflective map could be done defining the lower boundary of the high independentist sector at 75% instead of 80%. Almost half or the light orange comarques would be dark orange in that case. 

Unionism does not clearly dominate (i.e. above 60%) in any single district. The Aran Valley (NW corner) is not a true Catalan district but a Gascon one, what may explain their relatively low support for the Catalan nationalist project in spite of being a remote rural area.

The comarques are not electoral districts but do have an administrative, historical and  identity value for Catalans.

Based mostly on electoral data from La Vanguardia.

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