Sunday, October 7, 2012

Official opinion poll: Western Basque Country

The Spanish governmental institute Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) has been polling the opinion in the Western Basque Country and Galicia, countries having elections this month. 

I excerpt here some of the most interesting results on the Western Basque Country here.

Western Basque Country

Economic situation:
  • Basque Country: 61% think it as bad or worse, vs. 5% who see it good.
  • Spain: 90% think it as bad of worse, vs. a mere 0.4% who consider it good.
Greatest worries:
  1. Unemployment (71% have it as their first worry, 13% as second - total: 84%)
  2. Economy (14% as first worry, 32% as second - total 46%)
  3. Education (14% as first or second greatest concern)
  4. Health care (14% as first or second greatest concern)
  5. Housing (14% as first or second greatest concern)
Terrorism and the end of violence (two different options in the poll) only add up together to 8% (a mere 2% as first option).


54% of all people polled (after reapportioning to reflect real demography) consider the current decentralization system insufficient, 25% would want greater self rule for the autonomous communities while 28% demand the right to self determination. Instead 30% are satisfied with the current system, 8% would want less self-rule and 9% does not know/did not reply.

42% are in favor (rather or strongly in favor) of Basque independence, while 43% are against (rather or strongly against). 16% do not answer/do not know. All four segments of opinion are around 20% each. 

  • 25% Basque only
  • 21% more Basque than Spanish
  • 37% evenly Basque and Spanish
  • 4% more Spanish than Basque
  • 6% Spanish only


Native language:
  • 75% Spanish
  • 20% Basque
  • 3% both Basque and Spanish
  • 1% Galician
  • 1% Other

Knowledge of Basque language:
  • 54% understand it
  • 40% speak it fluidly
  • 41% can read it
  • 36% writes correctly in it


Voting intention
  1. Basque Nationalist Party (Basque center-right): 20.5%
  2. Does not know: 19.8%
  3. Abstention: 16.3%
  4. EH Bildu (Basque independentist left): 14.6%
  5. Socialist Party (Spanish unionist center-left): 9.5%
  6. No answer: 8.3%
  7. Blank vote: 3.3%
  8. United Left (Spanish federalist left): 3.0%
  9. People's Party (Spanish unionist right): 2.5%
  10. Other parties: 1.8%
The figures speak of a quite brutal collapse of the Spanish unionist parties, specially the right but also the socialists, eroded by the mismanagement of the central Spanish government and having caused greater social woes here in the Basque Country by upholding an illegitimate government for more than three years.

However because of the equal representation of the three provinces, ignoring different demographic weights, and the exceptional support that the unionists have in Araba (mostly in the capital, Vitoria-Gasteiz), the unionists will almost unavoidably get some more seats than their foreseeable pathetic results. 

Notice anyhow that the results forecast offered at the end of the document is not based on expressed voting intention and that (again) is brutally distorted to favor the ruling party, whose meager 2.5% of voting intention miraculously becomes nothing less than 11% of forecast votes, what is totally absurd and unprofessional.

Political alignment:

49% of Western Basques consider themselves to be at the Left in the political spectrum (35% center-left, 14% far left), 30% place themselves in the political Center and only 4% think themselves as being in the Right (3% center-right, 1% far right). 18% did not know/gave no answer.


The economic sectors feeding more homes are:
  1. Trade: 11%
  2. Services (real estate, consulting, informatics): 9%
  3. Metallurgy: 9%
  4. Construction or related: 8%
  5. Health care: 7%
  6. Education: 7%
  7. Transport, storage and communications: 7% 
  8. Restaurants, hotels, inns, taverns: 5%
  9. Public administration and similar: 4%

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