Part of the pro-bankster coalition deal in Greece was that elections would be held in April 2012, that is: within two months, more or less. But naturally the continuous sell-off of the nation by the current leadership has taken a toll, eroding the support of the parties conforming the coalition: the Socialist Panhelenic Party (PASOK), New Democracy (ND) and the far-right Christian-Fundamentalist neofascist bloc LAOS (National Orthodox Rally). The latter broke ranks this past week but looks unlikely to be able to benefit too much, at most stealing some voters to ND.
The conservatives of New Democracy, which already took a serious beating in the 2009 elections, are still bleeding out and can't expect to get more than 28% of the votes (33% in 2009) and will more likely be around 24% (min. 19%)
The social-democrats of PASOK are set to collapse. The Papandreu dynastic party gathered 44% of the vote in 2009 but can't expect today to get more than 14% (more like 11% and maybe as little as 8%).
As mentioned above, LAOS is stuck in voters' support (4.5-6.9%, from a 5.6% in 2009), so who is benefiting from the collapse of the bourgeois dual single party system?
The Left. However the Greek Left is wide and divided. Ignoring the Greens (stuck in their share of 3.5% of the vote) and very minor parties, there used to be two blocs at the left of PASOK: the old school (Stalinist) Communist Party of Greece (KKE), the new school Communist Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and its breakaway faction by the right the Democratic Left (DIMAR).
This DIMAR party is the greatest uncertainty because they are bound to become kingmakers in the new parliament. They claim to be Democratic Socialist (in theory at the left of Social-Democracy but in practice probably no difference at all) and promote reformist strategies (not revolutionary ones) within Europeanism.
In practice this probably means that they are just waiting to gather enough bargaining tokens (votes) to form a bourgeois coalition government, extending the current one in new form into the immediate future. It surely means a new Papademos government with their support (or something of the like).
But in theory at least they may have the possibility to lean to the left and form an ample Left coalition government with Syriza and KKE (and maybe the small Green party). Together they are at the very edge of getting sufficient majority in the Greek Parliament (approx. 41.5% of the popular vote needed and together the Left parties, not counting PASOK, reach as much as 47% in some of the latest polls - and growing).
Can this happen? In truth I do not know. The situation of Greece does not allow for intermediate ways: either they bow to the demands of the Troika or they break away, declaring unilateral bankruptcy and having to use quite radical socialist measures to keep the country stable.
Of course NATO would not allow such thing to happen and would instigate military coups and/or border conflicts with Turkey (an all-out invasion is unlikely but not impossible) but let us for a moment assume that this does not happen and that Greece is irrationally allowed to declare bankruptcy and nationalize at will in a bubble of sorts.
So let's dream awake a bit and assume that DIMAR, SYRIZA and KKE can join forces and form a serious consistent genuinely Socialist government ready to at least try a Icelandic option of sorts by means of declaring unilateral bankruptcy. And let's assume that all that happens is that the Council of the European Union freaks out and suspends Greece membership in EU (or even expels it altogether), maybe embargoing its foreign assets or whatever.
That would be the KKE or Stalinist option of socialism in one state, which is hardly sustainable but of course there you have Cuba. Nowadays life in Cuba is probably enviable for a growing number of Greeks, who are being dispossessed of all, even their dignity as citizens, workers and human beings, in the unholy name of Usury.
Are there other options? Not at the moment. If and when the crisis and revolutionary awareness extends to other parts of Europe (what will probably happen eventually, maybe soon but just not yet), then Greece will have other choices but right now it's between a rock (IMF-EU blackmail) and a hard place (determined Socialist policies in isolation - other than that of worker and popular solidarity organizations elsewhere).
Would it be my decision, I have no doubt: Socialism in one state (provisional solution) and arming the people for territorial self-defense.
But it's not, so my forecast is that DIMAR will form a pro-bankster second coalition government with ND and PASOK, maybe even still led by that pathetic Papademos. However the IMF-EU blackmail will be harder and harder to swallow, with growing unrest in the streets (even more!), and within a year or two (maybe just a few months) the coalition will collapse with its members suffering from even more erosion in terms of popular support.
Then we will see: the revolutionary exit is the only likely exit for Greece sooner than later (and the Greek People has demonstrated that they have the strength to push it ahead) but how exactly it will materialize: earlier or later, in isolation or in a larger European revolutionary wave, whether it will trigger a military reaction by NATO or what... all that is very hard to forecast. It is just clear that the path set for Greece at Brussels is doomed to not work at all.
Note: an option is that elections may not take place until legally demanded (c. October 2013), allowing for the constitutional reforms demanded by Brussels to take place. But further delays can only cause further erosion of the coalition members, further growth of the Left (voting intention but also popular convictions) and further instability.