By snubbing the most important imperial tool for governability (aside NATO but not really different from NATO), Donald Trump is throwing rocks at his own roof, because it's hard to see how would the USA project its power through the world without the G7. G7 is the backbone of NATO, all its members except Japan (the backbone of "Eastern NATO" on its own right) are major NATO powers and that's why the G7 exists and why it has been instrumental to establish US imperial hegemony over the world. Trump is destroying that, and I for one welcome it, even not without some vertigo, as all major changes should inspire.
The pouting face of Merkel, the tears of British newspapers crying foul about Brexit and the non-existent "special relationship" (bootlicking vassallage I call it, because Britain gets nothing from its subservience to the USA) and then of course the stupid childish face of Trump himself, they are all very worth a sinking global system that was already sinking anyhow, so why to spare this old man the joys of laughing at this childish game of armchairs?
NATO was already cracking, notably because of the major difficulties that the Berlin-Washington relation undergoes as the USA and its most loyal puppets (France, Britain) have rampaged with no criterion across the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, against Libya, Syria and Russia. Remember how Italy and Germany rejected to join the adventurerist toppling of Muamar el Gaddafi, mostly because it was an attack on Italian interests in favor of French and British ones? Most people don't grasp this well: they tend to think in terms of unilateral imperialism but imperialism is always multilateral, multipolar, and it always leads to conflict and wars (even if nukes seem to prevent major global wars, smaller localized wars and the ever growing "cold war" tension is certainly there); in the case of Libya, it was Italy the main loser (after Libya itself, of course) and Germany was already upset enough to align themselves with Rome rather than with the big boss in Washington D.C.
That's because Germany, as manufacturer-exporter power, has a very long history of searching for all kinds of markets and one of them used to be Iran. And who have therefore harmed US/EU sanctions against Iran? Germany among others. And it is exactly the same with the anti-Russia sanctions but I'd dare to say that even much more severe. Germany has been a good dog anyhow and bowed to what master commanded, albeit reluctantly, but this was only or mostly because the other markets it had access to compensated. But now? With all this Trumptard "nationalism" in form of tariffs, what will keep Germany in line? The military occupation? Well, it does not seem enough: if Germany says "US and NATO bases out" it's hard to see how NATO will be able not to comply. They'd move just a few steps away to Poland but that's another story.
But of course Germany does not want that because NATO and EU are extremely imbricated with each other, and Germany needs EU, which is its primary market and a major pillar of its imperialist policy, what Varoufakis called the "postmodern IV Reich". So basically Trumptard Washington is playing with fire and putting Germany between a rock and a hard place: threatening to blow up Germany's most prized market and subservient sphere of influence (EU, which will blow up anyhow on its own contradictions, sooner than later: watch Italy, remember Brexit, ponder Spain about to blow up in pieces, look at the massive strikes and related street fights in France) if Germany does not behave as a bootlicking slave of the USA.
And Germany does but there will be a point where it won't anymore. When and how is that? Probably not very far away in time. I already explained how Trump wants to destroy the EU and make sure Europe becomes a colony of the US empire, at least to a much larger degree it has been so far (because of the cold war cum class war of the mid 20th century, and also the transition from a Europe-centered world to a US-centered one), and it is clear that the EU will blow up in pieces soonish (something that the US wants but while keeping NATO as intact as possible, what may not be possible).
Another crack in NATO is Turkey. Turkey is under Erdogan almost identical to Nazi Germany in its arrogant warmongering and incontrollability (and Erdogan makes no secret of his admiration for the German genocider). All major powers love (and secretly hate) Erdogan because of that: the USA wants Turkey to remain in NATO and keep aiding them to de-stabilize the Middle East, Russia wants Turkey to leave NATO and especially to be "independent" enough to act as their ally, including in the infamous "Pipelinistan", which is another facet of imperialism. But the most coveted asset of Turkey are the straits (Bosphorus-Marmara-Dardanelles) that join the Aegean and Black seas, of critical importance to Russia since times immemorial.
So we have the following cocktail of instability:
- The USA wanting to reform the Empire in favor of the metropolis even at rist of destroying the Empire itself.
- Germany wanting to get their way in both exploiting the EU as a semi-colony and being allowed to have unrestricted business with Russia, Iran, etc., this last against the will of the Imperial master, now asserting itself as "iron fist" madman in charge and reminding everybody else they are nothing but minions.
- Turkey playing to be the Muslim version of Nazi Germany and being flirted by a despaired former lover (USA) and an aspiring new lover (Russia).
- Latin Europe exploding at slow motion but in ways that seem impossible to stop. This happens in different ways in each state but it happens all across the region (except for Portugal, where social-democracy with a green touch has made the country gain stability).
- Poland playing to be Mussolini's Italy in Eastern Europe, with full backing of the USA but directly in contradiction since long ago with the interests of Germany (and of course, those of Russia).
- Britain drifting aimlessly between the Brexiter despair, the Corbynist hope and the nearly total indifference by all its "allies", including the USA.
And then of course in the background is China, whose local expression in Europe typically comes by the name of Russia. Mind you that Russia would prefer a more balanced independent role but that the USA has cornered it against the all-embracing arms of China. Remember that no long ago the G7 used to be called the G8... but then Russia was kicked out.
Probably the most crucial element in all this is the weakness of Germany as power: it is an economic powerhouse that cannot assert itself against its master and overlord the USA. Or can it? And, if so, how? Nobody, as far as I know, defends in Germany a more belligerant and independent stand... yet. But, on the other side, it seems like there is no alternative for Germany than actually becoming more belligerant. However becoming more belligerant, asserting itself as power by means other than economic and diplomatic would not just break taboos but actually would initially cause its global market share to shrink dramatically. And those are the marked cards Trump is playing with: you may pout all you want, Angela, but if you dare to do anything, you won't sell a single Volkswagen or Siemens thing in the USA, and your darling EU house of cards may easily fall down with a single but determined blow.
The question is: can the USA survive that kind of upheaval of its own imperial structure? My bet is that it cannot and that it's actually only doing that out of desperation because it's already riddled with holes and problems it can hardly overcome.
