Where is the Malaysian lost airplane?

The airplane (CC by Laurent Herrera)

We all have already heard about the Malaysian missing airplane Flight 370, which was lost in the Gulf of Thailand never to be found again. 

You may also have read the reports of ringing but unanswered mobile phone calls that clearly indicate that the plane is not under the sea but somewhere on land, even if passengers and crew are not able to answer. 

This led to speculations that the airplane might be in some jungle area in SE Asia and that it could have been kidnapped rather than suffering an accident. 

However the latest information is that satellite data has allowed to track the plane to some 1000 miles West of Perth (Australia) in the middle of the Indian Ocean, not too far from the French colony of île Amsterdam. 

After gathering all the data, it seems that whoever kidnapped the plane deactivated the radar transponder (which identifies the flight to radars) and also another tracking device known as "Acars". Disabling this element is technically complex. However they did not deactivate the satellite antenna, what has allowed this tracking, providing a raw geographic location every hour. 

Other radar data suggests that the airplane was making abrupt altitude changes as it flew back into Malaysia and across the Malacca Strait. 

Source: Bloomberg.

Approximate route (my reconstruction) from published satellite and other tracking data

Many questions arise:

Which is the target of the attack? First claims by a previously unknown organization of alleged Islamist ideas suggested that they were targeting ethnic Chinese and China itself, however the claim may well be a false lead considering that the plane was most likely never blown up, judging on the evidence. Nevertheless China or some still ill-defined Chinese interest flying in the aircraft may still be the target but the issue remains blurry. 

Even more intriguing is where the heck are the kidnappers flying to? The flight was scheduled to land in Beijing, so it probably did not have too much extra fuel at its last reported location on the Indian Ocean. Therefore, as the aircraft must be on land, there are not so many places to search anymore: mostly the Easternmost French Antarctic Territory. 

Both Île Amsterdam and its neighbor Île Saint-Paul are uninhabited except for intermittent research activities, so it is very possible that the kidnapped plane is to be found in either of them. Of course it is difficult to judge without knowing the exact fuel amount carried but they are good candidates. Île Saint-Paul seems to be devoid of human presence most of the time (while Île Amsterdam has a more semi-permanent research base and it is still summer in that part of the World, so it is likely that some researchers are present right now).

The landscape of the islands is dominated by grasslands, however most of it is rugged, so there are probably only some few spots where such a large plane can take land.

Map of Amsterdam and Saint-Paul islands (1976, public domain).

Another question is why this satellite and radar data has not been available to the Malaysian and other Asian authorities performing the search? Or, if it was available, why was it ignored?

Finally why would the kidnappers fly to those forgotten islands under French jurisdiction (OK, unconfirmed but quite plausible)? Are French and other NATO secret services involved? Were they just chosen because of their desertic status? Did the kidnappers and (some of) the hostages take another plane or ship waiting for them there? Where to?

And then of course: are the hostages still alive?


Update (Mar 18): new informations suggest that the actual route of the plane was actually more northerly, through the Bay of Bengal in westward direction. If this is correct it is very possible that the plane actually took land in Diego García, a UK-US military base, whose native population was forcibly evicted long ago to make sure that the key strategic base was unmolested.

Quite worrying is the information that claims that soon after the plane's arrival to Diego García top medical experts from both the USA and China flew to the remote island, located south of the Maldivas. If confirmed, this would be most intriguing indeed.

In any case it seems extremely unlikely that a plane could fly undetected by at least the USA in that area. Therefore the lack of clear information about the whereabouts of the aircraft strongly imply US participation in the "diversion" of the plane, whatever means they used to do it.


Update (Mar 19): RT also seems to think that the plane headed westwards and they argue that the maneuver was deliberate and possibly controlled by hacking the autopilot computer. 

A new speculative destination is Afghanistan but Pakistan says it did not cross its airspace.

It seems more and more clear in any case that the airplane was intentionally diverted (kidnapped) and that that at least some authorities do know what is going on (the USA for sure but probably also other countries, although it's being kept secret so far).

Relatives of the passengers have threatened with a hunger strike if the Malaysian government does not release all the information.


Update (Mar 20): almost certainly the airplane is in Diego García. See: this new entry.