Wikileaks cables: France (1)

And now let's see what has been cooking in Paris.

For practical reasons, I'm just exploring here the 2009-10 cables, which anyhow are at least half of all the leaks. Here there are the ones dated in 2010 (Jan-Feb):



NATO's new role, Russia, Iran, China, nukes, etc.

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10PARIS170.html

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10PARIS193.html

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10PARIS174.html

(S/NF) SecDef observed that Russia usually followed China's lead on North Korea, whereas China usually followed Russia on Iran.

USA "prohibits" EU security role, France protests:

(C) Interpreting SecDef's latter comment as prohibiting an EU security role, Kouchner dissented and said that since 500 million people live in the European Union, the EU needed to be able to adequately protect them. Gates observed that France was just one of 5 or 6 nations that spent more than 2 percent of GDP on defense, and that if the EU decided it needed an independent security role, it could reduce number of forces available to NATO and cripple the Alliance.

Iran sanctions, Pakistani military

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/01/10PARIS71.html

(S/NF) The GOF remains concerned about enforcing sanctions with Brazil and Turkey, said Richier, because both have considerable ties to Iran. He said that Turkey has made clear it does not want to suffer economically, as it has in the past. Richier noted France's concern over Turkey's "regional policy" towards Iran, whereas it views Brazil's engagement as being more nave and possibly based on misinterpretation of the Obama decision to try engagement first (without Brazil knowing what limits on that engagement should be).

...

On the role of the Pakistani military, Zerinini said General Kayani has "learned the lesson of Musharraf" and was staying behind the scenes. However, he is manipulating the government and parliament, including to prevent change on Pakistan's policy towards Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Afghan border, and also to stir up controversy regarding the Kerry-Lugar bill that ties continued U.S. aid to increased civilian control of the military. Zerinini also argued that the west had missed its opportunity to push the Pakistani military to crush the Afghan Taliban taking refuge in Pakistan.

...

Longchamps cautioned the U.S. against imposing sanctions in Iran because they would hurt typical Iranians without impacting the political leadership.

Russia as "strategic partner" for France, frustrated in Middle East, unwilling to reduce nuclear arsenal

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/11/09PARIS1473.html

Paris welcomed the U.S. "reset" with Russia and views Moscow as a strategic partner that cannot be ignored.

...


(S/NF) The GOF is eager to engage with the United States on the Middle East peace process and worries we are not moving fast enough. President Sarkozy and FM Kouchner continue to press for a Middle East peace summit before the end of the year, to be held under the auspices of the Union for the Mediterranean, of which Egypt and France are currently co-chairs. A sense of frustration and ambition informs the French approach toward the Middle East peace process: they are frustrated that they must rely on the USG and on stubborn parties in the region to end a conflict whose persistence adversely affects their national interests,and they are ambitious to play a larger role in the peace process, in order to facilitate a successful outcome and to enjoy the prestige that such a role would earn them.

...

Any suggestion that bilateral U.S.-Russian arms reduction talks should eventually include other nuclear powers, or that an FMCT should address existing stockpiles, are absolute redlines for the French.

Israel and Middle East

http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2009/10/09PARIS1461.html

... the Israelis claimed the Turks have allowed weapons-related material for Iran's nuclear program to transit Turkey, with Prime Minister Erdogan's full knowledge. The French replied that Israel would need to have clear and concrete proof of such activity before leveling accusations.

...

... Bereyziat reported, President Sarkozy called Prime Minister Netanyahu directly on October 26, to urge him to establish an independent investigation into the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces in the Gaza conflict. Sarkozy told Netanyahu that such a step would decrease pressure on Israel and its allies stemming from the Goldstone Report, but Netanyahu responded briskly: "No way." Franco-Israeli discussions on the status of the peace process stumbled over a "profound difference on tactics," according to Bereyziat (...)

...

(C/NF) Franco-Israeli discussions on the status of the peace process itself resembled a "conversation of the deaf," Bereyziat said.

Will continue with the many more from 2009 shortly.

Open war in Korea?

I just became aware, and automatically deeply scared, of the new military escalation at the Korean demarcation line, which has taken at least two lives. 

For what I could gather so far, the combats began, in relation to the naval exercises that South Korea was making near the North Korean coastline, at the island of Yeonpyeong home base of South Korean 2nd Fleet. North Korea had asked that these drills would not take place but Seoul ignored Pyongyang's demands.

Yeonpyeong is labeled with the number 3 (from Wikipedia)

There are conflicting versions on how the combats began. According to North Korea, the shelling of the military facilities at Yeonpyeong island, killing 2 soldiers, injuring 17 more and also two civilians, was a retaliation for South Korean artillery fire towards its coast. South Korea rejects this version and claims they were shelling only in westward direction (i.e. towards open sea). 

South Korea is already retaliating with air attacks, the extent of which is not really known yet. 

The armed conflict could easily escalate into open war, as both states are technically at war and they enjoy the protection of opposed great powers: the USA and Japan on one side and China on the other.

Fidel Castro warned some months ago that the USA was planning a new Korean War. He also warned of an invasion of Iran. I have always hoped that he was wrong, because war is never a solution and, in the case of Korea in particular, the risk of a nuclear escalation is very high. 

Whatever happens now, it looks really bad.



Update: North Korea claims that the South Korean navy shot missiles, not to the coast, as I said above, but to North Korean territorial waters, to which Pyongyang decided to reply in full force. The note concludes saying: in the Western Sea there will be only the maritime military demarcation line defined by the Popular Democratic Republic of Korea. (Source: Euskal Herria Sozialista[es]).

This seems to underline the fact that it is a real border (demarcation line) dispute. Discussing who is right seems pointless but it is clear that the North was the one who decided to take a step further by shelling military facilities in a show of force. It is like when two people are quarreling pushing each other and then one decides that a punch in the face rather than stepping back is what the situation requires.