Based on the latest poll by the CIS (official Spanish sociological institute), I believe that the answer is yes but that depends on whether you believe the direct voting intention answers or the "cooked" (pondered) results, which are highly suspicious.
- [list - direct vote intention - cooked results]
- Podemos - 14 - 11
- EH Bildu - 10 - 7
- UPN - 7 - 11/12
- PSOE - 6 - 6
- Geroa Bai - 5 - 5
- Ciudadanos - 4 - 4/5
- PP - 2 - 3
- IU - 2 - 2
The cooking is very simple and obvious: right-wing unionist parties (UPN, PP, C's) get a serious plus, left-wing rupturist parties (Podemos, EH Bildu) get a big minus. All the rest (even the institutional PSOE) remain just at the express voting intention level.
Navarre elects a Parliament of 50 seats in a single district with D'Hont system assignment of seats to closed lists (which becomes nearly proportional for such a large number of seats). The elections will take place on May 24, along with other regional and municipal elections across the Spanish state.
Unlike in most of other regions Podemos Navarre is lead by independents who are not too keen to obey to what Madrid (Iglesias' clique) says and most likely will favor a coalition for change with EH Bildu (i.e. with anyone ready to break the continuity of the eternal UPN-PSOE coalition), as stated in their primaries' program. Hence I do think that we can really hope for a big change in Navarre for the good.
The coalition will still need 26 seats to gather a comfortable majority (what seems to imply at least three parties) however if no such majority is achieved the most voted list can form government and rule in minority, as the current UPN government of Yolanda Barcina is doing thanks to the passive support of the PSOE.
Note: for those unfamiliar with Navarrese politics, this is my synthesis:
- Unionist tories (bordering fascism often): UPN, PP, Ciudadanos
- Unionist labor (decadent social-liberal): PSOE
- Federalist left: Podemos, IU
- Basque nationalist left: EH Bildu
- Basque nationalist center(?): Geroa Bai