Friday, May 8, 2015

Upcoming regional elections in Spain: hint of possible results

Uncertainty looms over Spain's regional politics as voter intentions are very divided
Following with the latest CIS poll, I will briefly mention here the possible results of the upcoming May 24 elections by region and by direct vote intention (in percent). I will totally ignore the "cooking" because it would require to look at each region's electoral system and what-not, what is impractical. 

Note: the main all-Spain parties are: PP (tories), PSOE (labor), Podemos (new left), IU (old left), Ciudadanos (fascists). Percentages do not even remotely approach 100% because undecided, abstention and minor options are not listed.

  1. PSOE: 20%
  2. Podemos: 15%
  3. PP: 13%
  4. Ciudadanos: 7%
  5. IU: 3%
  6. Foro Asturias: 2% (regional breakaway of the PP, in decay)

  1. PP: 14%
  2. PSOE: 10%
  3. PRC: 9% (regionalist center-right party)
  4. Podemos: 7%
  5. Ciudadanos: 7%
  6. IU: 2%

  1. PP: 20%
  2. PSOE: 13%
  3. Podemos: 8%
  4. Ciudadanos: 7%
  5. IU: 3%
Note: the Leonese People's Union (UPL) gets a 0.4% but only runs in León province so it can get representation as well. They want to segregate their province as a distinct autonomous community.

La Rioja:
  1. PP: 20%
  2. PSOE: 12%
  3. Podemos: 10%
  4. Ciudadanos: 9%
  5. IU (plus allies): 3%
  6. PR: 2% (regionalist party)

Navarre: see my previous dedicated entry, Podemos leads, followed by EH Bildu, regime collapse is very likely.

  1. PP: 14%
  2. PSOE: 13%
  3. Podemos: 11%
  4. Ciudadanos: 7%
  5. IU: 3%
  6. CHA: 2% (left-wing nationalists)
  7. PAR: 1% (right-wing regionalists)

  1. PSOE: 26%
  2. PP: 21%
  3. Podemos: 10%
  4. Ciudadanos: 5%
  5. IU: 3%

  1. PP: 15%
  2. Podemos: 14%
  3. PSOE: 12%
  4. Ciudadanos: 11%
  5. IU: 4%
  6. UPyD: 1% (like Ciudadanos but imploding, residual)

Castilla-La Mancha:
  1. PP: 19%
  2. PSOE: 15%
  3. Ciudadanos: 8%
  4. Podemos: 8%
  5. IU (and allies): 3%

Valencian Country:
  1. PP: 16%
  2. PSOE: 12%
  3. Podemos: 11%
  4. Ciudadanos: 9%
  5. Compromís: 4% (left-wing nationalists)
  6. IU: 3%

Balearic Islands:
  1. PSOE: 13%
  2. PP: 12%
  3. Podemos: 10%
  4. Ciudadanos: 7%
  5. Més per Mallorca: 3% (left-wing nationalists)
  6. Proposta per les Illes: 1% (right-wing regionalists)
  7. IU (and allies): 1%

  1. PP: 22%
  2. PSOE: 13%
  3. Ciudadanos: 10%
  4. Podemos: 9%
  5. IU (and allies): 3%
  6. UPyD: 1%

Canary Islands:
  1. PSOE: 12%
  2. PP: 10%
  3. Coalición Canaria: 9% (right-wing regionalists)
  4. Podemos: 9%
  5. Ciudadanos: 6%
  6. Canarias Decide: 2% (nationalists?)
  7. Nueva Canarias: 2% (left-leaning nationalists)

Overall it seems that the twin party resists but weakened and has gotten reinforcements from the new maverick fascist-populist party Ciudadanos, which seems to be attracting much of the conservative discontent but will certainly ally with the PP once elections are over. It is even possible that Rajoy decides to call snap general elections before summer to help consolidate this tendency and favor the coalitions with Ciudadanos, who will then not have to answer to the citizenry until four years in the future (if there are still elections in 2019). 

However even accepting this fact, as most do, it is much less clear if the forecast PSOE-Podemos coalitions will take place at all. Many weeks after the elections in Andalusia the PSOE has not yet been able to find a coalition partner nor form government, because it does not want to yield to the program demands of Podemos, such as institutionally boycotting all banks who proceed to evict people from their homes, nor it does want to make a deal with right-wing parties such as the PP or Ciudadanos, which can compromise its image in this year full of elections. 

So in my understanding it is quite possible that the PSOE-Podemos coalitions will be hard to form, because the PSOE is only "socialist" in the misleading label and actually works as a hardcore ultra-capitalist party. The alternative PP-PSOE coalitions are very much possible, and very likely to be repeated at state level after general elections. For all these reasons I do speculate that Rajoy will call snap general elections for July, because otherwise the gobernancy of the regions will be compromised for too long, as neither the PSOE nor Ciudadanos may want to lose face by allying themselves with the beleaguered PP, rightfully perceived as the corrupt heart of Spain and against whom they are directing all their darts. 

It is interesting and somewhat surprising that, in spite of being an all-Spain party, Podemos only leads in Navarre, as well as in some cities of Catalonia and the Western Basque Country (municipal elections are state-wide and Podemos looks strong in towns like Barakaldo), although in Barcelona it is the brand Barcelona en Comú, largely independent from Podemos but gathering all the non-independentist left (i.e. excepting the CUP, which is also growing, but including Podemos and IU, among others), which leads with 14%. Similarly in Madrid (and many suburban towns of the metropolitan area) Podemos or similar left-union lists are quite strong but still trail often after the incredibly sturdy PP, in spite of all the corruption and lies. 

In any case it is just an opinion poll and the results will be definitive only in May 25th. We will see then with more clarity.

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