Basque geopolitical analyst Txente Rekondo (Basque Cabinet of International Analysis, GAIN) has today a quite interesting article on the North Caucasian resistance against Russia at Gara newspaper (in Spanish language).
|North Caucasus ethnic groups (source)|
The main element is the increase of armed attacks in the region, which have spread all around favored by the Russian Jacobin (and often terrorist) intransigence towards the self-rule demands of the peoples of the area. While the guerrilla activity in Ishkeria (Chechnya) has been somewhat reduced because of the terror state implemented by the Russian proconsul Ramzan Kadirov, the number of attacks has increased in other republics, notably Daghestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria. However the Chechnyan volcano is erupting again.
The guerrilla has been particularly active in Daghestan, where police agents, businessmen and "collaborators" have been targeted often. Meanwhile municipal elections took place in an environment of fraud and violence that does not help the least to legitimize the Russian occupation, already discredited by the terrorist methods employed by the Russian forces.
Daghestan is a multiethnic republic but most of its components are NE Caucasian micro-ethnicities also united by the traditional influence of Islam, a trait shared with other native North Caucasian peoples. Unemployment is very high, forcing emigration to Russia and other countries. The economy is very weak.
In the NW Caucasian republic of Kabardino-Balkaria attacks are also frequent against police and military forces, energy infrastructure and pro-Russian politicians. One of the main triggers is the racist or islamophobic attitude of the Russian administration and armed forces, which have pushed many to join the guerrilla.
In the Western part of the region a relatively new front is that of Adyghe people (Circassians), who are affronted by the selection of Sochi to be the site of the Winter Olympics 2014. Sochi, now a Russian city ethnically, symbolizes the genocide against the Circassian people in the 19th century. However this front is a political one and not yet armed.
In Ingushetia, the local resistance decided recently to suspend temporarily their attacks against Russian forces (but not against collaborators).
Division in the Emirate
But most important maybe is the division in the clandestine Emirate that acts as coordinator of North Caucasian resistance against Russia. This Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus is the joint front organization of the various guerrillas operating in the area and was formed in 2007, after the Chechen resistance had suffered some serious setbacks.
Their official leader or emir was Doku Umarov, former President of Ishkeria (Chechnya). In August, Umarov appeared in a video resigning as emir and naming a successor. However a few days later he recanted from such declaration blaming it as a Russian maneuver. He then expelled the Chechen commanders, who in turn declared themselves not anymore under his command.
Rekondo thinks that this schism pivots on the delicate balance between the Islamist ideology and the ethnic nationalist one, which has always been the real cause of the conflict, in spite of the yihaddists.
The Chechen commanders have declared themselves open to solve the situation but they demand that the Emir becomes a formal figure and not pretend to be the only leader, they also demand a confederate structure for the Emirate and not a centralized one.
The situation remains open and unstable for all. The Caucasus is in any case far from being pacified.