The elections in the Southern Basque Country

Let's discuss a bit the Southern Basque political situation after the municipal and regional (provincial) elections.

First of all, I worked out a map of most voted lists for each municipality (but based on regional election vote). Notice that in many cases, particularly in Navarre, being first does not mean to be the winner nor being able to govern, that will be decided by the local councils, often very fragmented: it depends on possible pacts that I will discuss below.

Most voted list in the regional elections by municipality (click to expand)

You can compare with the European Parliament elections 2014, for which I made a similar map.

1. The Real Left:

The Real Left (EH Bildu, Podemos, United Left) has performed rather well in all the territories, however it is fragmented and the gains are in most cases not enough to displace the regime's parties. In some cases, Gipuzkoa notably, the result is rather bitter than sweet, as EH Bildu has lost its primacy and its ability to govern the region and some important towns, including the capital Donostia (San Sebastian). In Biscay the Real Left is relatively stagnated and gets mediocre results, what is always surprising in the most urbanized and industrial area of the Basque Country. In Navarre and Araba the results are undoubtedly good.

The best result is no doubt that of Navarre, where the regime change demand has become massive. Data from municipal elections:

• EH Bildu gained 17,000 votes since 2011 (total 54,000), jumping from 12% to 16% of popular support.
• The "others" category, which includes the many "citizen lists" akin to Podemos has grown in 41,000 votes, jumping from 5% to 18%. 
• Izquierda-Ezkerra (United Left) remains stuck around 15,000 votes (5%).

Together we are talking of around 35% of the popular vote (more than 100,000 supporters). That's no small feat. These three political tendencies of the Real Left make up the core of the change coalition in Navarre, to which it must be added the center party Geroa Bai, probably not too comfortable of having so many and so strong "radical" partners and no other realistic options for coalitions. 

Another good result is in Araba:

• EH Bildu grows 3,000 votes (total 35,000) sliding from 21% to 22% of the popular vote.
• The "others" category grows in 15,000 votes, jumping from 7% to 16%. Again this is essentially attributed to Podemos-inspired popular lists. In fact, only in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Hemen Gaude gathered more than 10,000 votes. 
• United Left (under the ad-hoc brand Irabazi) gained a few hundred votes (total 6000) and half percentual point (total 4%).

Overall it means some 55,000 voters and maybe 42% of the vote. Not enough to rule anywhere important because of fragmentation that harms representation, as well as the indecision about possible pacts of Podemos in the Western lands, the strong vote for PP in the capital Gasteiz and the consolidated lead of the PNV in the rural areas. 

In Biscay, holding one third of the overall Basque population, the results are more mixed:

• EH Bildu loses 12,000 votes (total 113,000), sliding from 21% to 20%.
• The "others" category doubles from 31,000 to 61,000 voters, from 5% to 10%.
• United Left (through its brand Irabazi, including some other tiny parties) doubles its performance, otaining 18,000 votes (5%).

Overall the Real Left gets some 150,000 votes and 30% of the vote. Not a great performance in the most urban Basque region, I must say. It's clear that, for some unexplained reason, many working class voters are choosing other options, largely the righ-wing PNV. 

In Gipuzkoa, the second largest region and the one with the strongest Basque feeling, the results are considered quite bad, notably because of the loss for EH Bildu of the governing capacity in the province and capital, as well as many other towns. Again the explanation is difficult because Gipuzkoa has been performing very well at the economic level but conflicts like the one triggered by the imposition of certain unpopular recycling methods may have weighted too much, even beyond common sense. 

• EH Bildu lost 13,000 votes (total 107,000), falling from five percentual points (from 35% to 30%).
• The "others" category has only grown very little (some 2,000 votes) and not even noticeable at percentage (5%), indicating a lack of presence of Podemos or similar forces in this region.
• United Left or Irabazi has also duplicated its votes (total 18,000, 6%) but remains a small force.

Overall the Real Left gathered some 125,000 votes (more than 35%). It is still a strong performance but clearly low and a setback considering the recent history.

2. The Unionist Center-Left (PSOE):

The party historically named Worker Socialist is not anymore such thing in practice, if it ever was, but has slided first out of Marxism (if Lafargue could see that!) and then out of social-democracy altogether, much like most other "social-democrat" or "labor" parties of Europe, into US style liberalism. In the Basque Country it tends to ally with regionalist right-wing forces on "reason of state" grounds and keeps absolutely no dialogue with the Real Left, at least its strongest force: EH Bildu. As in the rest of the state they have suffered some notable erosion, Gipuzkoa excepted, where they bounced slightly and got their best performance.

The PSN-PSOE has lost 7,000 votes in Navarre relative to 2011 (total 43,000), falling from 16% to 13%. It is also irrelevant in the coalition games in most places. This no doubt owes largely to their staunchly support for the corrupt UPN government only not to go along EH Bildu.

In Araba the collapse has been even worse, losing 7,000 votes (total 18,000) and falling from 16% to 11%. 

In Biscay the PSOE loses 19,000 votes (total 72,000) and drops from 16% to 13%, i.e. much like in Navarre. Critically they lost the second largest town and one of their historical strongholds, Barakaldo, to the PNV. In all the Greater Bilbao they only remain vote leaders in Portugalete, being their only other plaza the village of Ermua.

In Gipuzkoa however the PSOE holds well, gaining some 7000 votes and growing one percent point to 19%. They retain Irun and Eibar. 

3. The Basque-Regionalist "Center" (EAJ-PNV and Geroa Bai):

Much like the PSOE, this party does not anymore honors its name of Nationalist. It is de facto a regionalist force at the service of Spain and is also reactionary and cronyist enough to follow the doomsday path of UPN in Navarre, privatizing public banks, investing huge sums in absurd projects like the bullet train and what-not.

However it seems the time of their collapse is yet to come. They have in fact performed very well. 

In Navarre the PNV is tiny (they lost all credibility in the 1980s and could never recover it, much less being as Biscay-centric as they are), however they are part of the coalition Geroa Bai, surely more to the center-left, which they see as their own pet-project (after all left-leaning forces left it in favor of EH Bildu) although they do not control it. Let's begin by these:

Geroa Bai in Navarre loses 7,000 votes compared with Nafarroa Bai (which included forces now in EH Bildu), totaling 29,000 votes (9%) in municipal elections. It has performed better in the regional election (I don't have the data right now but they get the same representation as EH Bildu and even some more votes) because of the personal charisma of Uxue Barkos, no doubt, and also because it may have attracted "moderate" voters for change and for Basque identity. 

The PNV in Araba keeps approximately the same number of votes (34,000) but loses one percent point (21%). It gets to pick partner for coalition, either PP or EH Bildu, as these two don't talk to each other.

In Biscay it loses 3000 votes (total 215,000) but gains half percent point (38%). It will rule (again, in coalition with PSOE) the region and capital, as well as most municipalities, adding to their trophy shelf the second largest town (Barakaldo) and the historical capital (Gernika, where the mayor will be the same person, who changed parties). It also gets other referential towns from EH Bildu, notably Bermeo and Lekeitio.

Gipuzkoa is however the great victory for the jeltzaleak (partisans of God and the Old Law, JEL in Basque acronym), growing in 28,000 votes (total 111,000) and jumping from 21% to 31%. They gain (in coalition with PSOE) the regional government, the capital San Sebastian and many other towns like Tolosa. The media manipulation of issues like the recycling conflict or the issue of the European cultural capital may have weighted a lot on this. 

4. The Unionist Right (PP and UPN):

These two sibling parties are clearly the saddest ones. The PP barely gets any representation in the Western Basque Country, excepted Araba. 

In Biscay they lose 30,000 votes, falling to 8% (from 13%).

In Gipuzkoa they lose 15,000 votes, almost half, falling to 5% (from 10%).

In Araba however they even gain a few hundred resisting in the 25% share of voters. This is largely because of the demagogic xenophobic attitude of the Mayor of Vitoria-Gasteiz Javier Maroto. They will probably hold control of the capital's City Hall and be a key player in regional governance coalitions. 

In Navarre the PP (running separately from UPN) experiences serious loses: almost 8000 votes, falling from 6% to 3%. 

Its close ideological relative, the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), is much stronger in the Old Kingdom and holds relatively well, considering its loss of prestige on corruption and mismanagement grounds. They lose 9,000 votes, falling from 28% to 24%. It may seem a minor setback but it is catastrophic in terms of their ability to retain power because of the parallel and more dramatic loses of their allies (PP and PSOE) and the determination of the change coalition (Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and United Left). They will lose the regional government, the capital Iruñea-Pamplona, all of Pamplona's suburbs and many other towns, including some rather to the south like Tafalla.

In synthesis:

The Unionist parties tend to fall, particularly the PP. The PSOE also suffers and the loss of power in Navarre is almost total for the unionists. The PNV instead gets consolidated, strongly advanced in Gipuzkoa at the expense of the Nationalist Left. The Real Left tends to advance but more strongly in Navarre and Araba, more weakly in Biscay and clearly experiencing loses in Gipuzkoa in spite of a model administration in many aspects (but maybe a bit arrogant and self-centered in issues where the adversaries have won the battle of demagogy). Much of the advance can be attributed to the Podemos phenomenon, although clearly not all. 

The fragmentation of the Real Left and the underlying conflict on the National issue are no doubt crucial matters to be worked out. On one hand it is possible that the Basque Nationalist Left is sometimes over-emphasizing the national aspect over the social and class aspect, on the other the all-Spain associated Left has been doing the opposite, causing disaffection to many possible sympathizers for whom being Basque and Basque freedoms are a central issue, regardless of whatever possible collaboration with the Spanish worker class. Hence the Podemos-style lists get better performance in the South, where the national feeling is weaker, while the get little or nothing in the North instead. 

Another issue, less important here but not absent, is the Podemos vs United Left conflict for the hegemony of the Real Left, which is still raging, not just between both forces but also with fractures inside them (most notably in United Left but also inside Podemos sometimes, with the grassroots of Podemos in Bilbao impelling a different municipal list than the parties' coalition blessed by Podemos Madrid, what split the vote and reduced the representation).

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Data from Naiz Info, you may want to check it for further detail: Navarre, Araba, Biscay and Gipuzkoa.

Colombia: FARC suspend unilateral cease-fire after massacre of guerrillas by government

The Colombian peace process has suffered a major setback after the government massacred 27 guerrillas in Guapi and other 10 in Segovia-Antioquía. As result the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have declared the end of their unilateral cease-fire, intended to favor the peace process, which was, on the table at least, advancing steadily. 

Very particularly the FARC blame President Santos of expressing joy at the killing of these Colombians, in what was clearly an attack against the peace process itself, becoming one way or another active accomplice of the sabotage. 

The unilateral cease-fire has lasted just five months.

Full FARC communication (in Spanish) at BGD!

Fragmented but clear victory of the real left in Spain's elections (updated)

The new Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau

The next Mayor of Barcelona will be, beyond reasonable doubt, the former leader of the Anti-Evictions Platform, Ada Colau, leading a nearly unitary left platform Barcelona in Common. It is possible that the same will happen in Madrid, even if the the PP is the most voted party, just barely above of Manuela Carmona's platform Madrid Now. In Valencia the PP also managed to get a narrow plurality of the votes, with the leftist coalition Compromís (alliance of federalist and nationalist forces) being a close second and a strong candidate to lead the new ruling coalition. 

In these two cases the PSOE, nominally a left-wing party but effectively just another lackey of the bankster mafia, will have the key, however the wrong decisions can cost them their very existence (the PASOK's example is mentioned often), as the voters are clearly much less willing to pardon class treason these days and the shadow of Podemos has grown very large.

Likely new mayor of A Coruña, Xulio Ferreiro

Other towns where the so-called Popular Unity forces (akin to Podemos and United Left but largely independent from them) have made a decisive breakthrough and will be able to rule, if pacts allow, are Zaragoza (Zaragoza in Common), Cádiz (For Cádiz), A Coruña (Atlantic Tide), O Ferrol and Santiago de Compostela (Open Compostela).

Another highlight is the change in Navarre, where the various forces vocally opposing the UPN (regionalist but allied to the PP and similarly implicated in corruption scandals) have managed to muster majority in both Pamplona and the whole of Navarre.

In Catalonia it must be mentioned also the important advance of the Nationalist Left force Popular Unity List (CUP), which will probably rule Reus among other towns. However the Right Nationalism of Convergence & Union is still very strong. What has collapsed in Catalonia is the support for the unionist forces altogether, which, barring a few industrial towns with high Spanish-ancestry population, obtains nearly nothing.

It is clear that change is happening in many cities and regions. However the overall reality of the many towns and regions is way too complex and diverse, with no clear trend other than a very clear slide to the left everywhere.

Some of the new 'popular unity' wins or near wins (source: Diagonal)

Follows a synthesis of the regional (autonomous communities') results:

Madrid

The tories (PP) will be able to rule the capital's region (but surely not the capital city itself) by virtue of the likely support of the very similar maverick party Ciudadanos (xenophobic, posh, demagogic) as the hypothetical Podemos-PSOE coalition doesn't reach enough seats to muster a majority. However they have suffered massive loses and Podemos has become the third party with 19% of the vote. 

Sudden gloom of Valencian Mayor Barberá

Valencian Country

The PSOE will hold the key to governance and it is theoretically possible a left-leaning coalition made up by PSOE, Compromís and Podemos. However this party still has to make its decisions either in favor of a clear socialist agenda (that they lack in spite of their name) or in favor of the old regime. 

Castile-León

The PP barely managed to retain a majority in spite of clearly losing supports. It is the only region when it manages to do that. 

Asturias

The PSOE holds the key to governance and is also the most voted party so in principle they should lead a left-leaning coalition. However, as it happened in Andalusia (with a caretaker government two months after elections) it is possible that won't get the support of Podemos (third force and 9 seats) because they are unable to accept their "red line" demands, such as not collaborating with banks involved in home evictions. 

Cantabria

The Regionalist Party of Cantabria, formerly led by popular moderate conservative Revilla, is the most voted party and will most likely manage to form government. Podemos and Ciudadanos only get weak results in this region.

La Rioja

PP retains a strong plurality and will probably rule with the passive or active support of Ciudadanos. Notably the regionalist Partido Riojano gets no representation for the first time in many decades.

Scientist-turned-politician Pablo Echenique
leads Podemos in Aragón

Aragón

The PSOE holds here again the key to governance, even if it is the second most backed party, the third being Podemos. These two parties would need the support of the Chunta Aragonsesita (Aragonese Nationalist Left) and United Left anyhow to form a majority. Again it is unclear if the liberal politics of the PSOE and the socialist and participative ones of Podemos can be made compatible. 

Balearic Islands

Strong result of the nationalist left coalition Més (14%) and Podemos (15%). However the PSOE again holds the key to governance. 

Extremadura

The best result in all the state for the PSOE still leaves them short of a majority. It is possible but unclear that they form coalition with Podemos (not too strong in this rural region) or that they rule in minority with punctual pacts.

Castile-La Mancha

Pretty much like its neighor region Extremadura (see above). 

Murcian Country

The PP manages to hold strong, just one seat short of the absolute majority. They should be able to rule with the active or passive support of Ciudadanos.

Canary Islands

In spite of the strong advance of the left forces (PSOE holds, Podemos irrupts with 6 seats and Nueva Canarias grows slightly) and the huge loses of the PP, the regionalist right (Canarian Coalition) does hold pretty well and will surely be able to form government with PP support.

Galicia

Even if the Northwestern Iberian country only held elections to town councils and provincial governments, the massive advance of the popular unity lists and the collapse of the PP in one of its traditional strongholds is very significant. The only nationalist force running on its own (others joined the popular unity lists), the Galician Nationalist Bloc, has also suffered, as has the PSOE.

Regional governance map after elections. Color-code:
PP-led right majority
regionalist-led right majority
left majority but including PSOE
left majority without PSOE

Basque Country

I would like to discuss later (update: done!) on in greater depth the issue of Navarre particularly but here goes an advance of the political evolution in the Southern Basque Country:

Uxue Barkos (GB) appears as
the new Navarrese President

Navarre

After many many decades of UPN-PSOE effective coalition, these two old regime parties would not be anymore able to rule neither in Navarre nor in Pamplona. 

In both the Navarrese Parliament and the City Council of Pamplona an array of four political forces, each running separately but in agreement about the urgent need to replace the rotten UPN government add up to a narrow but sufficient majority. Therefore we can expect a coalition of Geroa Bai (Basque Nationalist Center), EH Bildu (Basque Nationalist Left), Podemos and United Left. Podemos has obtained in Navarre one of the best results of the whole state probably because its members and leaders were decided to make things change in the region and would not accept the intromission of Madrid. 

Western Basque Country

The Western Basque Country sees the consolidation of the right-wing nationalist (or rather regionalist these days) Basque Nationalist Party, which holds with modest loses in Biscay, advances in Gipuzkoa, where it will probably take both the provincial government and the mayorship of San Sebastian to EH Bildu, and loses in Araba. It also took the second largest town of Biscay, Barakaldo, to the PSOE, pretty much ending decades of "socialist" government in the working class and largely Spanish-descendant Left Bank of the Bilbao Estuary. 

The jeltzaleak, as the PNV followers are known, will need anyhow of the support of the PSOE, which experiences some but not overwhelming erosion, to rule in most power seats. 

The situation in Araba is however extremely complex with the PSOE having lost its traditional position as fourth contender to Podemos. However the stand of Podemos in the Western Basque Country is most ambiguous and anyhow EH Bildu plus Podemos plus Irabazi (expanded United Left) don't muster enough seats to form a majority. They would need of the PSOE but the PSOE just won't talk to EH Bildu, so the most likely end result is a two party coalition in minority led by the PNV. 

Conclusion

So in general: good performance of the real left, with some very significant game-changing highlights in cities like Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and also in territories like Navarre. Still in most cases the PSOE holds the key to governance and it is very possible, considering its leaders and policies, that will follow the European fad of coalitions with the right. It is unclear however if this will pay off as for the PASOK in Greece (catastrophic debacle) or as for the PD in Italy (reinforcement at the expense of the right).

I suspect that the next move of the Twin Party will be to call snap general elections in order to allow for PP-PSOE coalitions nearly everywhere, without having to pay for that alliance against nature in the next four years. This proposal is what the controversial acting-Mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá has brought forth, apparently in order to defend her corruption and cronyism: a state pact PP-PSOE "against the radicals". At worse the elections are scheduled for October but I would not be surprised if they are moved forth to June.

It is also notable that there are major regional differences: in some areas like Madrid, Aragón, Navarre, Galicia, Valencia, Balearic Islands and some urban areas of Catalonia, the forces of change are clearly performing strong. The erosion of EH Bildu in the Western Basque Country is just mild and irregular, so it can also be considered a stronghold of the forces of change, as happens with Cádiz and the revolutionary stronghold of Marinaleda in Andalusia, where the CUT repeats victory after 40 years in power. However in Castile (various regions, Madrid excepted), Andalusia, Asturias and Canary Islands, the change process seems quite a bit stagnated, it must be said.

Because of the very rigged electoral system, which gives 2 base deputies to every province, before apportioning the rest on population, and 4 senators, regardless of population, these largely rural and underdeveloped areas of what is, in essence, Greater Castile weight heavily on how the Spanish Parliament will be configured, electing 156 of the 350 deputies: a clear majority that does not correlate with population. This clearly favors the bipartisan (Twin Party) system and is key to the deciding power of the social-liberal PSOE, which now occupies the center of the political spectrum.

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Note: for full details you may want to check a page like this one of the newspaper Público, which I used as partial source.

Rapid dramatic melting of Antarctica Peninsula

So big that it is affecting the local gravity, as measured by a specialized satellite.

Antarctica Peninsula (south of Tierra del Fuego) is melting almost by the day. And it is only the second largest region of Antarctica melting and contributing to sea level rise.

B. Wouters et al., Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula. Science 2015. Pay per view → LINK [doi:10.1126/science.aaa5727]

Abstract

Growing evidence has demonstrated the importance of ice shelf buttressing on the inland grounded ice, especially if it is resting on bedrock below sea level. Much of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula satisfies this condition and also possesses a bed slope that deepens inland. Such ice sheet geometry is potentially unstable. We use satellite altimetry and gravity observations to show that a major portion of the region has, since 2009, destabilized. Ice mass loss of the marine-terminating glaciers has rapidly accelerated from close to balance in the 2000s to a sustained rate of –56 ± 8 gigatons per year, constituting a major fraction of Antarctica’s contribution to rising sea level. The widespread, simultaneous nature of the acceleration, in the absence of a persistent atmospheric forcing, points to an oceanic driving mechanism.

See also the press release at Science Daily.

Fascist Ukraine gets Western support in its bankruptcy - compare with Greece

The Fascist regime in Ukraine has just passed a law allowing arbitrary moratorium on its foreign debt payments. The country has been actually brought to bankruptcy by the Fascist "Maidan" regime imposed by the USA and its allies, including early "evacuation" (robbery?) of its gold reserves to the USA and therefore this bankruptcy was very predictable. 

The interesting part is actually in the Western reaction to the news:

The international community, including the United States, European Union and international financial institutions are helping Ukraine in this difficult time, said the statement. The country expects a $17.5 billion bailout from the IMF in the next four years, as well as $7.2 billion that will be loaned to Ukraine other countries and international financial institutions.

In other words the USA and its puppets are helping the Fascist dictatorship of Kiev to have a non-catastrophic partial bankrupcty by means of perpetuating the debt dependency. It serves their purposes, which are to extend the anti-Russian and anti-Ukrainian regime for as long as possible (it won't last forever, that's clear when you get a mere 17% participation in the mock presidential elections, but meanwhile the looting continues). 

The siege of Greece

Meanwhile the extremely democratic socialist government of Greece, enjoying growing popular support by all accounts, a member of the European Union and NATO, is being forced to uncontrolled bankruptcy (and exit from the Eurozone) by those same powers. 

Not a single attempt at relief is being made even if Tsipras and his cabinet enjoy vast democratic support. Much like in Venezuela, what the Western Empire is doing, is to besiege the democratic socialist government in the hope that it will collapse and stops being a nuisance to their extremist capitalist policies.

A naive observer would think this is absurd, how can the self-proclaimed "guardians of democracy" promote fascism and attack democracy? Well, they are only the guardians of Capitalism. "Democracy" in their propaganda speech is just a code word for Capitalism at its worst, for vassalage to the global banker mafia. That way in their media Ukraine becomes a "democracy" and Venezuela a "tyranny". Of course nobody informed can believe that but not everyone is informed, many just watch TV. 

In fact today we see more and more how democracy opposes Capitalism and how Capitalism, after the period of concessions because of the Cold War I, when it had to compete against the Leninist version of socialism, is again, as in the 1920s and 30s supporting fascism everywhere. It never really stopped being that way (just consider the many fascist regimes under NATO protectorate in Mediterranean Europe, Latin America, Africa and Asia, including Israel and Apartheid South Africa) but there was a time when the West appeared ashamed of such relationships. Not anymore now that the mass media is absolutely concentrated in a few oligarchic hands: now it is again as in the time of Mussolini and Hitler and it may indeed have the same dire consequences.

80 people own more than 3.7 billion.

I read at Global Research, citing OXFAM (one of the few charitable NGOs that really has a conscience) that the World's 80 wealthiest individuals own more than the less affluent 50% of the global population. Reality can be even worse because some very rich individuals such as monarchs are not included in the sources and the exact accountancy of their wealth is not fully clear anyhow. 

Another finding is:

The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2014 presents on its page 98, a global wealth pyramid, which indicates that the world’s richest 0.7% (35 million people) own $115.9 trillion, while the poorest 99.3% (4,665 million people) own $147.3 trillion. It also shows that the richest 8.6% own $224.5T (trillion), while the poorest 91.4% own only $38.7T. (Or, in other words: the richest 8.6% own 5.8 times as much as do the poorest 91.4%.)

Finally they mention that scientific research demonstrates that the USA is no longer a democracy but an oligarchy (pretty much like Russia). The power of the common people to influence policy in the USA is effectively almost zero nowadays. 

They don't say but much of that is because of private property of the mass media, which are concentrated in very few hands. These have globally rigged the market so media are not anymore profitable in most cases, becoming exclusively an investment for their influence, something every stinkingly rich oligarch must have but not because they make any profit, not directly, but because they serve to influence policy and politics in general.

It is the same in Europe and in almost every other place. I guess that the few exceptions may be found in Latin America, where a few countries like Venezuela or Bolivia can be considered truly democratic, with common people actually making a difference, or in Greece. 

Marx predicted it

But back to the economy: this horrible situation of extreme and growing inequality, of extreme concentration of wealth and power in very few hands, is exactly the predictable and actually predicted outcome of Capitalism in the "end of times" (so to say): an unproductive rentier oligarchy, every day more extremely financier and speculative and corrupt to the marrow is parasitizing the global economy. This minuscule group of hyper-rich cannot of course generate much demand (some luxuries but nothing otherwise), what actually plunges the real economy into catastrophe as the bulk of the people is deprived of even the most basic means of life (salaries that don't even pay the rent, you know the deal, you probably live through it in one or another form). 

The result, the unavoidable and already ongoing result is a dramatic implosion of the whole economy, produce that doesn't sell, even if people would like to buy it (but nope: they can't afford even the very basics), deflation that causes the collapse of even correctly managed productive companies, accumulation of the nominal wealth in the speculative-financial sector, a gambling residual economy that is absolutely unsustainable (more money invested in betting against the success of companies and countries than in favor of their success). No future at all for this scenario. I doubt it survives to 2020. 

But regardless of the sustainability, or rather total lack of it, of the current speculative global economy (or rather eco-chaos, because there is no nomos whatsoever in it anymore), the dramatic effects it is having and will have on the vast majority of the population can't be exaggerated: each month, each year greater and greater fractions of the global people are being pushed to the extremes of near-impossible survival, what causes desperate mass migrations, riots and what-not. Only the low level of class consciousness and popular organization prevent this situation from evolving into full fledged revolutions in more and more places. Mind you that the growing victories of "Bolivarians" or now also Syriza in Greece must be considered as revolutionary because they are active expressions of the extreme exhaustion of the peoples and their growing desire to try anything but this endless and hopeless plunder. 

Sometimes, rarely, even mercenary politicians, in Freudian slip, speak the truth. The Secretary General of the ruling People's Party of Spain, María Dolores de Cospedal, is one of those. In two occasions she was recorded reminding us "how hard they have worked to plunder the country", confusing the Spanish word sanear (to clean up) for saquear (to plunder, to loot).

And that's the truth: they are looting not just this or that country but the whole planet Earth. It's a bit like the flying party of Douglas Adams: until the last pack of chips is exhausted, until the whole planet underneath has become scorched earth... they will continue with the looting. 

Unless we impede it. Time to sharpen the pitchforks.

Scottish nationalists win with a socialist program, Labor loses with a liberal one

British election results (Daily Mail)

In spite of the extremely poor representation score of the Anglosaxon electoral system of winner-takes-all, something good has arisen in that pretense of elections the United Kingdom has held: the Scottish National Party has come out as the great winner, getting 56 of the 59 seats of the Northern country. 

Why? Because they were the only meaningfully different electoral option and those who could vote for them, Scots, massively did so. Just check the programs:

• UKIP: austerity: yes, militarism: yes
• Tories: austerity: yes, militarism: yes
• Liberals: austerity: yes, militarism: yes
• Labor: austerity: yes, militarism: yes
• SNP: austerity: no, militarism: no

The SNP hence became within the narrowness of the British political system, the only party having a socialist and truly "labor" program, up to the point that some people in England asked if they could vote for the SNP! 

The SNP are not "radicals" (I wish), they are just standing close enough to the heart of the Scottish people in the key issues to rally their votes: they are the common sense party, something that seemingly does not exist anymore south of the Tyne. So in England the Tories won but any other result would have been equally meaningless. The Tories just exploited the English nationalism better than the other parties, even than UKIP, while Labor is totally unable to rally the discontent masses with a program that is so similarly anti-worker, anti-people, as that of their posh rivals. 

Liberalism is out, socialism is in, that's the message of these elections. Another issue is if socialists in England can manage to get their wits together and defy the reactionary Labor Party.


Update (May 17): Northern English wanting to be Scots. 

I mentioned above that some people in North England wanted to be able to vote SNP. Well, it's not just "some people": a viral movement has emerged since the vote in Northern England against Tory and "London-centric" dominance by Southern England. Some ask to join a would-be independent Scotland, others to create a Northern Republic, tens of thousands are signing manifestos and even waving the Scottish flag deep into English territory. Slogans range from "scrap Trident, fund the NHS", denounces of the pedophile mafia among English MPs. Oddly enough, Scottish reaction has been generally sympathetic.

→ Twitter: #TakeUsWithYouScotland
→ RT (same title, more journalized content)

Upcoming regional elections in Spain: hint of possible results

Uncertainty looms over Spain's regional politics as voter intentions are very divided

Following with the latest CIS poll, I will briefly mention here the possible results of the upcoming May 24 elections by region and by direct vote intention (in percent). I will totally ignore the "cooking" because it would require to look at each region's electoral system and what-not, what is impractical. 

Note: the main all-Spain parties are: PP (tories), PSOE (labor), Podemos (new left), IU (old left), Ciudadanos (fascists). Percentages do not even remotely approach 100% because undecided, abstention and minor options are not listed.

Asturias:

1. PSOE: 20%
2. Podemos: 15%
3. PP: 13%
4. Ciudadanos: 7%
5. IU: 3%
6. Foro Asturias: 2% (regional breakaway of the PP, in decay)

Cantabria:

1. PP: 14%
2. PSOE: 10%
3. PRC: 9% (regionalist center-right party)
4. Podemos: 7%
5. Ciudadanos: 7%
6. IU: 2%

Castilla-León:

1. PP: 20%
2. PSOE: 13%
3. Podemos: 8%
4. Ciudadanos: 7%
5. IU: 3%

Note: the Leonese People's Union (UPL) gets a 0.4% but only runs in León province so it can get representation as well. They want to segregate their province as a distinct autonomous community.


La Rioja:

1. PP: 20%
2. PSOE: 12%
3. Podemos: 10%
4. Ciudadanos: 9%
5. IU (plus allies): 3%
6. PR: 2% (regionalist party)

Navarre: see my previous dedicated entry, Podemos leads, followed by EH Bildu, regime collapse is very likely.


Aragón:

1. PP: 14%
2. PSOE: 13%
3. Podemos: 11%
4. Ciudadanos: 7%
5. IU: 3%
6. CHA: 2% (left-wing nationalists)
7. PAR: 1% (right-wing regionalists)

Extremadura:

1. PSOE: 26%
2. PP: 21%
3. Podemos: 10%
4. Ciudadanos: 5%
5. IU: 3%

Madrid:

1. PP: 15%
2. Podemos: 14%
3. PSOE: 12%
4. Ciudadanos: 11%
5. IU: 4%
6. UPyD: 1% (like Ciudadanos but imploding, residual)

Castilla-La Mancha:

1. PP: 19%
2. PSOE: 15%
3. Ciudadanos: 8%
4. Podemos: 8%
5. IU (and allies): 3%

Valencian Country:

1. PP: 16%
2. PSOE: 12%
3. Podemos: 11%
4. Ciudadanos: 9%
5. Compromís: 4% (left-wing nationalists)
6. IU: 3%

Balearic Islands:

1. PSOE: 13%
2. PP: 12%
3. Podemos: 10%
4. Ciudadanos: 7%
5. Més per Mallorca: 3% (left-wing nationalists)
6. Proposta per les Illes: 1% (right-wing regionalists)
7. IU (and allies): 1%

Murcia:

1. PP: 22%
2. PSOE: 13%
3. Ciudadanos: 10%
4. Podemos: 9%
5. IU (and allies): 3%
6. UPyD: 1%

Canary Islands:

1. PSOE: 12%
2. PP: 10%
3. Coalición Canaria: 9% (right-wing regionalists)
4. Podemos: 9%
5. Ciudadanos: 6%
6. Canarias Decide: 2% (nationalists?)
7. Nueva Canarias: 2% (left-leaning nationalists)

Overall it seems that the twin party resists but weakened and has gotten reinforcements from the new maverick fascist-populist party Ciudadanos, which seems to be attracting much of the conservative discontent but will certainly ally with the PP once elections are over. It is even possible that Rajoy decides to call snap general elections before summer to help consolidate this tendency and favor the coalitions with Ciudadanos, who will then not have to answer to the citizenry until four years in the future (if there are still elections in 2019). 

However even accepting this fact, as most do, it is much less clear if the forecast PSOE-Podemos coalitions will take place at all. Many weeks after the elections in Andalusia the PSOE has not yet been able to find a coalition partner nor form government, because it does not want to yield to the program demands of Podemos, such as institutionally boycotting all banks who proceed to evict people from their homes, nor it does want to make a deal with right-wing parties such as the PP or Ciudadanos, which can compromise its image in this year full of elections. 

So in my understanding it is quite possible that the PSOE-Podemos coalitions will be hard to form, because the PSOE is only "socialist" in the misleading label and actually works as a hardcore ultra-capitalist party. The alternative PP-PSOE coalitions are very much possible, and very likely to be repeated at state level after general elections. For all these reasons I do speculate that Rajoy will call snap general elections for July, because otherwise the gobernancy of the regions will be compromised for too long, as neither the PSOE nor Ciudadanos may want to lose face by allying themselves with the beleaguered PP, rightfully perceived as the corrupt heart of Spain and against whom they are directing all their darts. 

It is interesting and somewhat surprising that, in spite of being an all-Spain party, Podemos only leads in Navarre, as well as in some cities of Catalonia and the Western Basque Country (municipal elections are state-wide and Podemos looks strong in towns like Barakaldo), although in Barcelona it is the brand Barcelona en Comú, largely independent from Podemos but gathering all the non-independentist left (i.e. excepting the CUP, which is also growing, but including Podemos and IU, among others), which leads with 14%. Similarly in Madrid (and many suburban towns of the metropolitan area) Podemos or similar left-union lists are quite strong but still trail often after the incredibly sturdy PP, in spite of all the corruption and lies. 

In any case it is just an opinion poll and the results will be definitive only in May 25th. We will see then with more clarity.

Upcoming elections in Navarre: will there be change?

Based on the latest poll by the CIS (official Spanish sociological institute), I believe that the answer is yes but that depends on whether you believe the direct voting intention answers or the "cooked" (pondered) results, which are highly suspicious. 

Let's see:

• [list - direct vote intention - cooked results]
• Podemos - 14 - 11
• EH Bildu - 10 - 7
• UPN - 7 - 11/12
• PSOE - 6 - 6
• Geroa Bai - 5 - 5
• Ciudadanos - 4 - 4/5
• PP - 2 - 3
• IU - 2 - 2 

The cooking is very simple and obvious: right-wing unionist parties (UPN, PP, C's) get a serious plus, left-wing rupturist parties (Podemos, EH Bildu) get a big minus. All the rest (even the institutional PSOE) remain just at the express voting intention level. 

Navarre elects a Parliament of 50 seats in a single district with D'Hont system assignment of seats to closed lists (which becomes nearly proportional for such a large number of seats). The elections will take place on May 24, along with other regional and municipal elections across the Spanish state.

Unlike in most of other regions Podemos Navarre is lead by independents who are not too keen to obey to what Madrid (Iglesias' clique) says and most likely will favor a coalition for change with EH Bildu (i.e. with anyone ready to break the continuity of the eternal UPN-PSOE coalition), as stated in their primaries' program. Hence I do think that we can really hope for a big change in Navarre for the good. 

The coalition will still need 26 seats to gather a comfortable majority (what seems to imply at least three parties) however if no such majority is achieved the most voted list can form government and rule in minority, as the current UPN government of Yolanda Barcina is doing thanks to the passive support of the PSOE.

Note: for those unfamiliar with Navarrese politics, this is my synthesis:

• Unionist tories (bordering fascism often): UPN, PP, Ciudadanos
• Unionist labor (decadent social-liberal): PSOE
• Federalist left: Podemos, IU
• Basque nationalist left: EH Bildu
• Basque nationalist center(?): Geroa Bai

Lapavitsas: the Eurozone cannot be reformed, time to move on

Rather than the thoughtful but a tad wishful ideas of Yanis Varoufakis or the probably less thoughtful and more willing to concede praxis of the new negotiating team of Athens in Brussels, it is interesting to read what one of the leaders of the Left Wing of Syriza, Kóstas Lapavitsas has to say.

He acknowledges that the European Left is still immature for the radical changes that the continent needs and that there is in fact a most serious risk of fascism, for example in France, as result of the current stagnant situation. In this sense he advocates for Greece following its own path, leaving the Eurozone and restructuring the debt, preferable in agreement with Brussels, in order to be able to execute their democratic mandate of saving Greece from the collapse it has been pitted into and restoring human dignity to its citizens.

→ To beat austerity, Greece must break free from the euro (The Guardian)

→ The Syriza strategy has come to an end (interview at VersoBooks)

Very large protests across the USA against racist killer cops

Once again the inhumane brutality of the bourgeoisie's thugs, alias police agents (yes, those are the real thugs, not a bunch of people raging because of systematic murder and abuse by the authorities), manages to trigger the just rage of many many thousands across the streets of the cities of the supposedly most powerful state on Earth, totally unable to control its own racist cops.

On Twitter:
→ #BaltimoreUprising
→ #NewYorkCity2Baltimore
→ #BlackLivesMatter
→ #FreddyGray
→ etc.

Nuclear emergency: massive forest fire approaches Chernobyl

→ Russia Today.

The Ukrainian National Guard has been put on high alert due to worsening forest fires around the crippled Chernobyl nuclear power plant, according to Ukraine Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

(...)

"The forest fire is heading in the direction of Chernobyl's installations. Treetop flames and strong gusts of wind have created a real danger of the fire spreading to an area within 20 kilometers of the power plant. There are about 400 hectares [988 acres] of forests in the endangered area." 

(...)

(...) a representative of Greenpeace Russia said that the situation is much worse: “A very large, catastrophic forest fire is taking place in a 30-km zone around the Chernobyl power plant. We estimate the real area of the fire to be 10,000 hectares; this is based on satellite images. This hasn't been officially acknowledged yet.” 

The potential danger in this fire comes from the radioactive contaminants the burning plants have absorbed, ecologist Dmitry Shevchenko told RT. “A lot of radionuclides have accumulated in the soil, the trees and other plants. And of course when something like a fire happens, together with the smoke, the radionuclides can travel great distances.” Shevchenko is the deputy coordinator for the ecology protection organization Environmental Watch on North Caucasus. 

It is difficult to predict where exactly the contaminants will go, Shevchenko told RT. “We don't have a real-time monitoring system for the Chernobyl area. We can hypothesize whether the radionuclides will go here or there, but there is no-one who can reliably predict the situation."

Gaza Open Port: new Freedom Flotilla to challenge the genocidal siege

A new Freedom Flotilla aims to open the waters of Gaza and challenge the genocidal siege imposed by Zionists and its reactionary Arab allies (Egypt particularly). The first President of Tunisia after the 2011 Revolution, Moncef Marzouki, has announced he will be there. He's obviously not the only one, artists of international renown such as Manu Chao or Xabier Muguruza are also supporting the initiative. 

The list of members of the 2015 Freedom Flotilla is:

Canadian Boat to Gaza – Canadá
European Campaign to End the Siege on Gaza
Freedom Flotilla Italy
Gaza’s Ark
IHH – Turquía
International Committee for Breaking the Siege on Gaza (ICBSG)
Rumbo a Gaza – Spain
Ship to Gaza Greece
Ship to Gaza Norway
Ship to Gaza Sweden

Other collaborators:

 

Lifeline to Gaza – Jordan
Miles of Smiles
Palestine Solidatiry Alliance – South Africa

Fukushima killing hundreds of millions of animals, driving species to extinction, in Pacific Ocean

There's been some time since I last dedicated time to the Fukushima catastrophe but nothing has improved at all: the "China syndrome" has been confirmed, the situation is absolutely out of control and the effects are becoming more and more serious and widespread. 

Two snippets from EneNews (published today) illustrate how bad it is, but remember that these are just a couple of details in a continuous flood of very bad news:

1. Hundreds of millions of animals dead in North Pacific Ocean in the last two years, dozens of species annihilated → LINK

2. Power outage at Fukushima NPP and new mass discharge to the Ocean of radioactive water → LINK

On the upcoming elections in the Southern Basque Country

As municipal and regional Southern Basque elections loom (one month to go), I've grown somewhat curious about what do the opinion polls tell, what to expect?

The most interesting scenario is that of Navarre, where radical political change is very much anticipated after almost 40 years of Twin Party regime, in which UPN (Navarrese branch of the PP, conservatives) and PSOE (social-liberals) have supported each other against the Basque Nationalist Left, the only real opposition force (along with the much smaller United Left, now just The Left in Navarre). The corruption scandals particularly have taken a major toll for the pseudo-regionalist UPN, but also for the PSOE, who have supported them and rejected snap elections, extending the agony unnecessarily. 

We have two different polls both from March 2015. In one the Ancien Régime collapses, in the other the Ancien Régime miraculously survives albeit in a very fragmented form. What to believe?

A peculiarity of the Navarrese system is that, much as happens in municipal corporations, the party or list with the largest number of seats may form government unless another majority is formed by coalition, so it is still possible that UPN manages to form government if opposition forces can't agree to something better or if they don't reach the threshold of 26 seats. 

source: Electrograph

source: Electrograph

Legend or who-is-who:

• UPN (Navarrese People's Union): reactionary unionist pseudo-regionalist party allied to all-Spain PP, dramatically shattered by corruption scandals in the last years.
• EH Bildu (Rally the Basque Nation): Basque Nationalist Left, coalition of four parties around Sortu (Create), which represents continuity with former incarnations of the Basque Nationalist Left.
• Podemos (We Can): new Spanish radical-reformist party, whose performance in European elections and opinion polls threatens the establishment.
• PSOE (Spanish Worker Socialist Party): unionist social-liberals who rally the working class for the benefit the banksters. In clear decline for that very reason.
• Geroa Bai (Yes to the Future): residual leftover of the Nafarroa Bai coalition, which still retains some backing because of its independent leader Uxue Barkos, in spite of most component parties migrating to EH Bildu.
• PP (People's Party): reactionary unionist all-Spain party, currently in power in Madrid, also shattered by many corruption scandals.
• n (Izquierda-Ezkerra: The Left): Navarrese branch of all-Spain United Left, a federalist, eco-communist coalition around the Communist Party of Spain.
• C's (Ciudadanos: Citizens): Le Pen with a shallow make-up. A xenophobic Spanish nationalist conservative party that is dangerously climbing in the opinion polls in the last months.

So which scenario will take place in Navarre after the May elections? Truth is that I do not know but I do hope for something like the first one, where a coalition of EH Bildu, Podemos, Geroa Bai and Izquierda-Ezkerra can save the battered Old Kingdom and revitalize it. 

If something like the second scenario is the final result, we can only expect more of the same. That would be very sad.

In the Western Basque Country instead change will most likely be minor. The January poll gave a very strong performance to Podemos but the March poll shows a quite weaker implementation of this new party, something that is in agreement with opinion polls from Spain in general. 

Here in Biscay, we will continue stuck with the tiresome hegemony by the petty-bourgeois Basque Nationalist Party, being the only Basque region where they retain a clear dominance. They do suffer some erosion but not enough to challenge their dominant position. So more of the same, although no doubt there will be a stronger opposition with the irruption of Podemos as third force, at the expense mostly of the Spanish unionist Twin Party. 

In Gipuzkoa, where EH Bildu has ruled the last four years, everybody seems to keep their positions but all them eroded to greater or lesser extent by the irruption of Podemos. It's safe to think that EH Bildu will continue governing from an even stronger position and with the same general line, which can well be labeled as classical social-democrat, thanks to a predictable coalition with the maverick Spanish party. 

In Araba the only predictable thing is that there will be a hung parliament with five forces (used to be four) each getting a sizable fraction of it. Most likely the Basque Nationalist Party, occupying the de facto center position (which in the Basque case is not just about right-left but also about unionism-independentism) will be the one holding the scales and grabbing the seat of Deputy General therefore. But we better wait for the results anyhow. 

The iron hand of the Aranist sect

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV), in spite of belonging to the Ancien Régime as much as any of the other parties being shattered by the political storm spearheaded by Podemos, has somehow managed to remain relatively untouched by corruption scandals. It is not that the scandals do not exist but rather that the raison-d'état of the state- or bourgeois-held media and the NATOist coalition of political muppets hides them systematically. 

The Basque Nationalist Party is the last line of Spanish unionism in the Basque Country (or rather its Western and most populated third) and the Spaniards know it so they won't even dare to expose the many dirty affairs in which the Aranist force is sunk deep to the eyebrows.

But part of the blame must also fall on the Basque Nationalist Left, which hopelessly hopes for a day in which the Aranists wake up and decide to join them in a push for the independence of the Basque Country. The overall drift of the Basque Nationalist Left has been for much more moderate positions, still very radical for the Ancien Régime but not at all radical enough for a growing sector of its bases, who feel alienated by the new course.

Its continuous vacuous pleas to EAJ-PNV to join forces for independence, its rather pathetic attempts to compete with them for the center of the Basque nationalist political spectrum instead of properly rallying the multicultural Basque worker class and the weakness of its participative structures are taking a serious toll. Toll that may not yet be too apparent in electoral results but is clear in the street and online talk.

The failures of Podemos

Podemos arose with the pretense of being a radical participative new party but has since then drifted dramatically to personalism and centralism. The main exceptions are a handful of regional formations, including Navarre, Aragon, etc., where the officialist lists have not been able to rally the bases in clear but not yet admitted defeat of the Iglesias clique. 

This centralization of the party has obviously disenfranchised many potential voters. The extremely challenging declarations of their leaders against the independence of Catalonia have necessarily also alienated many possible voters, not just in Catalonia but also in the Basque Country, Galicia, etc. 

Disappointment is growing inside and outside the party even before they can rule for all these reasons that exclude key potential supports: anticapitalists and independentists, as well as those focused on true participative democracy. In the end it's not too clear what Podemos stands for or how is it different from other parties.

They still manage to rally many of the discontents but they seem to have touched their ceiling of growth. Additionally the regime has very actively promoted a xenophobic reactionary party (Ciudadanos), which masks itself under a pretense of renovation and an anti-corruption populist discourse, eroding various parties but also Podemos. Of course the media attacks against Podemos have been systematic, using lesser accountancy errors of one of their leaders as if it'd be a clear example of corruption within the new party and accusing them of being pro-Venezuela, which the media systematically characterizes as a dictatorship in spite of being a very respectful and inclusive democracy. 

Probably the weakness of the stand of Syriza before the EU (less weak than it may seem but not radical enough quite clearly) and internally has also affected Podemos somewhat because both parties are seen as similar (although Syriza has no doubt a much more solid team and militancy than its Spanish counterpart).

But in my understanding the greatest weakness of Podemos is it relative low level of internal democracy in spite of the discourse, something that in the end makes it similar to other parties and is a major systematic weakness of the real Left parties, affecting, as I mentioned above, also EH Bildu or its core party Sortu, what alienates much of its grassroots support sooner than later.

Death of two literary giants: Eduardo Galeano and Günther Grass

In the very same day, yesterday April 13th, two of the greatest writers of our time left us. 

Eduardo Galeano (Montevideo, 1940) is arguably the greatest author in Spanish language in the second half of the 20th century. His masterpiece Open Veins of Latin America[full PDF text at e-reading club] is a must read, so "must" that Hugo Chávez gifted it to Barack Obama in 2009. It is not just a literary masterpiece but also a most valuable history work, quite comparable to Zinn's A People's History of the United States but surely better in its truly amazing literary quality.

It begins this way:

The division of labor among nations is that some specialize in winning and others in losing. Our part of the world, known today as Latin America, was precocious: it has specialized in losing ever since those remote times when Renaissance Europeans ventured across the ocean and buried their teeth in the throats of the Indian civilizations.

Update (Apr 20th): 10 Galeano books freely available online in Spanish (BGD).

Günther Grass (Danzig/Gdansk, 1927) was certainly less radical initially (he was for long an SPD member) but his work is nevertheless very enjoyable. However he did evolve towards more determined positions in the anti-war movement of the 1980s and was hostile to reunification of Germany in 1991, fearing that it could only lead to a renewed German imperialism, which he opposed.

In 2012 he published the poem What must be said, against the German military support of the Zionist terrorist state and its overly dangerous nuclear capacity.

His most famous work is The Tin Drum. He got the Nobel Prize in 1999.

The first Communism, 144 years later.

These weeks we commemorate the 144th anniversary of the Paris Commune, the first ever Communist regime, radically democratic and the reference that Marx and Engels adopted as model for the dictatorship of the proletariat.

Naturally the reference work is Marx' The Civil War in France, including the very insightful prologue by F. Engels.

But for those with the inclination for the video format and the patience to watch a long movie, a most interesting take is Peter Watkins' La Commune (Paris, 1871), which, using the anachronistic narrative device of introducing television in the 19th century, reenacts the events:

Also, for those who understand Spanish, I believe that this debate in Escuela de Cuadros (Cadres' School, TeleSur program) is a very interesting complement:

Now, maybe more than ever before we need to retake the concept of Communism and restore it to its originally radical democratic nature, democracy that cannot be just restricted to elections every X years but that, as in the Paris Commune, must imply the election of all offices and their revocable nature. It also cannot be restricted to mere political democracy but must imply economic democracy, that is the collectivization of all means of production and livelihood - property is an unbearable privilege that must be abolished in favor of true democracy.

We shall prevail because Capitalism is unable to face the catastrophe it has created, only an organized and conscious People, Humankind, can do that. Revolution or extinction!

EH Bai rallies Northern Basque left vote in second round of department elections

The Basque Nationalist Left coalition Euskal Herria Bai (Yes to the Basque Country) achieved amazing records of support in the second round of the departamental elections, where they were the only left-leaning force remaining in five cantons for the second round of the vote, whose first round was last week.

EH Bai lists only managed to win in the Errobi-Aturri canton, where they run against the French fascist party FN. In that district they collected 78% of the vote in this second round (was 34% in the first one). 

However, even where they ultimately lost to cocky Sarkozy-strikes-back lists, they achieved record backing never before gathered, for example 45% in Donibane-Lohitzune (Saint-Jean-de-Luz), what caused their conservative and unionist rival Philippe Juzan to acknowledge publicly that the Basque patriots are rallying the youth much better than their party, wowing to learn a lesson from that. 

In the other three cantons the performance of the Independentists was also excellent and without precedent: 44% in Ustaritze-Errobi-Urdazuri, 43% in the Basque Mountain and 38% in Bidaxune-Amikuze-Ostibarre. 

Overall the French right won in most cantons but the social-liberals of Hollande managed to win three (Baiona-2, Baiona-3 and Hendaia). Abstention was very high (48%) suggesting that the people is not satisfied with the rather undemocratic seat assignment method, which strongly favors the Twin Party system and denies the right of representation to weaker but still important currents.

Source: Gara[es].

North of the Adur...

Overall in the French Residual Empire voters backed Darth Vader, oops, I mean: Nicolas Sarkozy. The population seems extremely disappointed about right wing politics by Hollande, demonstrating that terms should be much shorter, in order to impede the breach of electoral promises for too long. In brief:

• Sarko's likely backers:
• UMP: 1105
• Various right: 893
• UDI: 358
• MoDem: 46
• Hollande's usual backers:
• PS: 912
• Various left: 384
• PCF: 118
• PRG: 62
• Fascists:
• FN: 64
• Various far-right: 4
• Real Left:
• EE-LV: 29
• FDG/PG: 20
• Independentists: 7
• Miscellanea: 46

Source: Twitter.

Saudi intervention in Yemen: a major step in the direction of total chaos

Religion in Arabia

Yemen is not Bahrain. Bahrain is a small urban island while Yemen is larger than Spain or Thailand, a largely rural and impoverished country with large mountainous areas. 

Conquering Yemen, as the Saudis and their North American allies seem to hope is pretty much impossible (much less for a mercenary army as the Saudi one, which lacks the ideological motivation and will be easily demoralized). So this attack is a very risky move that allows the troubles of Yemen to split across the border, particularly to 'Asir, which has a very large Shia population which is also ethnically akin to Yemenis.

As we can see in the map, Saudi Arabia is made up of two vast desertic areas in the North and South, plus three more populated areas, primarily the Southwest (largely Sunni but also Shia), then the central "oasis area" (stronghold of the fundamentalist Wahabbi ideology that shapes the theocracy) and finally the Eastern Shia region that used to be part of Bahrain. While an extension of the conflict to the central region can be surely discarded in the short run and the Eastern Shia uprising was quelled in blood (although it is still latent and tightly associated to the developments in Bahrain, where protests continue in spite of brutal repression), a Houti advance in Eastern Arabia, particularly into 'Asir but potentially even threatening Mecca should not be discarded at all. In fact I can't but foresee it as the more natural development of the Saudi invasion in the short run. 

The weakness of Saudi power

Another thing to consider is who rules Saudi Arabia and how solid is their power. The recently crowned King Salman, 79, is widely believed to suffer from Alzheimer disease or some other sort of incapacitating dementia so there is a shadowy junta actually ruling the state and clear fractures in the ruling family are known to exist in spite of the secrecy that governs the Islamist state.

In other words: Saudi power is, in spite of oil revenues, at its weakest point ever, suffering intestine dynastic disputes, facing major dissidence from that 50% of the population that are women (whose condition under Wahabbism is surely one of the worst on Earth) and from the majority of the population in the Eastern Province. Now add to all that a powerful and consolidated Shia militia spawning from Yemen. The only pillars of Saudi power are the more and more questioned totalitarian religious police and a mercenary army, with good equipment and salaries but without the "soul" of a really compromised force, as it lacks of nationalist or otherwise ideological motivation of any sort. 

We are talking after all of a mere feudal state: a pre-modern residue stagnated on oil wealth and international alliances, heavily relying on an immigrant workforce with slave-like conditions, and almost certainly unable to withstand any serious turmoil. 

What can we expect

Yemen conflict (from Al Yazeera)

I foresee short-term Pyrrhic victories of the invaders (high sustained cost, low gain) followed by backslash in both Yemen and SW Saudi territory. Backslash that might well threaten Mecca. The boundaries are artificial and the intervention just made them meaningless: now it's an all-Arabian conflict and not anymore one just circumscribed to Yemen.

I also foresee increased unrest in Saudi Arabia as such: both from the people, for which Wahabbi totalitarianism is not anymore a valid option in this globalized and secularized age, but also from important segments of the dominant elite which have been apparently excluded from power with the still fresh crowning putsch of Salman the Ailing. 

It is probable that the intervention in Yemen is seen by the current shadow junta as a way to reinforce their power: nothing like a glorious military campaign, right? But there is a major problem: the campaign won't succeed and it will be painful and dirty, spilling into Saudi territory, so eventually its promoters will gain only increased weakness and not increased strength from it.

Finally there is another and very serious danger that can't be understated: that the besieged Sunni Islamists in Yemen will join the Islamic State, as those in Libya and Nigeria have done, and roll over Saudia from both Iraq and Yemen with likely opportunist support (as in Iraq) from inside the military. They would offer the rotten Saudi elites the "best" (worst!) of both worlds: a continuation of totalitarian Sunni Islamism and a modernizing fascist regime apparently more capable than the rotten Saudi dynasty. 

No need to say that such a development would dramatically alter the geostrategy of the region and the whole World. I is not unlikely though.

What I wonder at this stage is how controlled does the Pentagon has the situation. Isn't the risk of the Islamic State (effectively supported by Turkey, the USA and Israel but apparently not by Saudi Arabia) going out of control getting too big? This seems more and more like a repetition of the Hitler experiment: we (the Anglo-Saxon Empire) put a dictator in power and a few years later we have no choice but to wage war against him because he's become too independent and is challenging the status quo beyond what we can put up with. 

Obviously the IS is not your usual military junta or old-fashioned fossilized monarchy: they literally know no bounds in their brutal religious madness and are extremely ambitious. They have also shown to be very efficient at taking over weakened states, at least large chunks of them. And Saudi Arabia is one of those.

I wonder if that is what the USA wants and, if so, why? How do they plan to retain hegemony in the middle of such chaos and consolidated state of war? Conquering it in some sort of WW3? Will they be able to rally the masses around such a major imperial campaign in the midst of the worst socio-economic crisis in the history of Capitalism? I don't think so. All this can only backfire, even if I feel unable to foresee the details of the near-future developments.


Update (Mar 29):

06:48 GMT: Houthi rebels are moving artillery units closer to the border with Saudi Arabia, RIA Novosti cited Al Jazeera as saying (from RT live updates blog on the crisis). What did I say about the war spilling to Saudia?

Other details from the same source:

• Yemeni forces (army or rebels) can hit Saudi targets up to 500 km away (Iranian source)
• Saudia has massed up 150,000 troops at the border with Yemen. It is unclear if they plan to invade or just defend the border. Analyst suggest that a land invasion would be a disaster, however it is unclear how can the operation succeed without ground occupation, more so when the Houtis are clearly redirecting their efforts against the Saudi aggressor.
• While Egypt has joined the Saudi-led coalition with 16 airplanes and one frigate, Pakistan has remained uncompromising.
• The official Yemeni President (with almost no support inside the country) seems to have left the country for Riyadh and then for Egypt to attend an Arab League summit. 

Update 2 (Mar 29): Israel may be an active partner in the coalition bombing Yemen, according to sources in Sanaa mentioned by Fars Agency.