At the Basque Country - Donbass Solidarity Committee you can read the latest war report from Novorossiya (translated to English by Gleb Bazov):
Overall, it is becoming increasingly clear that the widely publicized offensive on Donetsk has, as expected, amounted to zilch. The Ukrainian Armed Forces does not have any more strength. It simply does not. And that is all. Moreover, the Junta forces are facing several simultaneous catastrophes on the local scale, which can become operational-tactical in nature and then strategic.
In Donetsk Republic, they report of successful encircling operations in the last week, retaking most of the border with Russia and capturing many armored vehicles. Similar results were achieved in the Northern front. Also fierce fighting around the strategic area of Ilovaisk with clear victories for the Militia, while the Western sector remained idle except for the incident of a bunch of Nazis in a bus who suicidally attacked a militia control point and were massacred.
|Latest military map (click to enlarge)|
In Lugansk Republic the hostilities were essentially related to the Russian humanitarian convoy, which triggered the Junta's desire to cut the road supplying Lugansk at Novosvetlovka-Khryashchevatoye. After an initial apparent success caused by surprise, the attack was fully defeated, crushing one of the Fascist units financed by the Ukrainian oligarchs: Battalion Aidar, as well as a tank company and a motorized infantry company of the regular Army. Further popular victories, with still ongoing artillery fire, were reported in Novosvetlovka.
They also mention the adjustments (resignations-cum-new-nominations) in the command of both militias, which are now gathered as a unified Army with pan-Ukrainian aspirations.
However I can't but raise my eyebrows to this comment:
The centralization of the military command will also oust the remnants of Makhnovism, which have been discrediting the movement.
How could Makhnovism (Anarchism, Libertarian Communism) discredit the movement and which are the goals of the Novorossiya Federation if Makhnovism is so problematic for them?
In any case, they emphasize that, after the many crushing victories of the Militias in the last weeks, the limelight has been transferred from the regular Army, extremely damaged, to what they call "militarized battalions", i.e. Fascist units financed by the oligarchs, units that, in spite of their fanaticism, are not at all comparable with the, properly trained and equipped, regular troops.
They conclude with an evaluation of military capacity, which has been technically equalized but is clearly better in the fields of moral and operational quality for the Militia. They suggest that a critical change is about to happen.
The Spanish volunteers Rafa and Ángel (pictured) report at Webguerrillero[es] that the Junta has bombed the chemical residues' processing plant of Gorlovka in yet another war crime, that risks the health and lives of the peoples of the wider region, not just the rebel republics.
Update: a second military report mentions growing guerrilla activities behind Ukrainian lines
Basque Country - Donbass Solidarity Committee just published another military report, which partly overlaps with the one mentioned above.
They discuss the murky issue of the black market of weapons, which affects both sides and the Russian mafias, and some ongoing battles in Donetsk People's Republic such as stopping the enemy at Yasinovataya, inflicting them severe losses at Nizhnyaya Krynka, repeat that the attempts to capture Ilovaisk have been all repealed and list some of the losses inflicted to the Junta's troops (known as "Ukies") in the besieged enclave of Saur-Mogila tumulus (called "mountain" in the report but actually an artificial hill from Prehistory).
The most mentioned town is Gorlovka (Horlivka in Ukranian), where the Militia claims to be encircling the "Ukies" after repealing the last attacks by the Junta's forces.
Contrary to the other report, this one has a more cautious forecast and advises that before the junta’s offensive in the area to the south of Debaltsevo is rebuffed and Novosvetlovka recaptured, all talk about the crisis being overcome is premature.
Even more interesting, I believe, is that, largely because of the lack of operative capabilities of the Ukrainian forces, the rear-guard is pretty much without watch and a still incipient guerrilla has began attacking the Fascist positions here and there. Considering that the actual civic support for the Junta is very weak in most of Ukraine and that the Nazi death squads have been largely sent to the front to replace the vanishing regular troops, I would say that it is very likely that guerrilla will become widespread throughout the country very soon, possibly triggering the collapse of the Junta altogether, particularly if the Novorossiya resistance becomes offensive and marches over Kharkov and other largely Russian-speaking cities, maybe even to Kiev itself.